Can
Ursula von der Leyen save Europe?
The European
Commission chief is secretive, controlling, and faces an in-tray from hell over
the next five years.
July 19,
2024 4:01 am CET
By Nicholas
Vinocur and Barbara Moens
BRUSSELS —
Centrist Europe has punched back.
After the
far right rattled the political establishment in a Continent-wide election last
month, those same, bruised mainstream party leaders dusted themselves down and
delivered a resounding rebuke, reappointing their own veteran centrist to the
most powerful position in the European Union.
Ursula von
der Leyen, a 65-year-old former German defense minister, has been rewarded for
steering the EU through a tumultuous period of pandemic and war with another
five-year term at the head of the bloc’s executive arm, the European
Commission.
Advertisement
Advertisement
During her
pitch for five more years, she sought to play up her family status, embodying
the traditional center-right conservative values that generally define the
Brussels orthodoxy.
But with
populist and nationalist forces now ranged against Europe’s political
mainstream gathering momentum across the Continent — and over the Atlantic —
she shouldn’t count on a honeymoon.
By the time
her second term ends in 2029, another Donald Trump U.S. presidency could have
come and gone, far-right leader Marine Le Pen could be running France, and any
number of other populists could be perched at the EU’s summit table alongside
Hungary’s Viktor Orbán.
“It will be
an extremely difficult five years for her,” said a senior EU official.
For one
thing, everyone in European politics knows von der Leyen already. And they are
not all fans.
She will
have to deal with critics who point to her controlling, secretive and distant
leadership style. She generally consults
with just a few trusted advisers — who are usually German — and even sleeps in
her office, on the 13th floor of the Commission’s HQ in Brussels.
Advertisement
Advertisement
When the
pressure is greatest, she tends to take the most serious matters into her own
hands, an instinct that can cause her trouble.
At the
height of the pandemic, for example, von der Leyen hinted that she had
personally negotiated a massive vaccine contract with Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla
via text message on her mobile phone, leading to an ongoing lawsuit alleging
she breached the EU’s transparency rules.
More
recently, after Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel last year, she badly
misjudged the political mood in EU countries by meeting with Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu. That prompted a major political crisis, threatening to undo
her credibility just as she geared up to launch her campaign for reelection.
On the right
wing of European politics, she faces critics who castigate her embrace of
“progressive” policies such as action to combat climate change.
It will be
harder to ignore all that noise now that the right wields more power.
Trump vs
Queen Ursula
Von der
Leyen’s often stilted demeanor has won her the moniker “Queen Ursula” in
Brussels. European leaders and lawmakers gave her a second term in part because
they had no other viable option. The alternative would have been an unthinkably
chaotic scramble, at a critical time for the EU’s 450 million citizens.
But how will
von der Leyen, Europe’s safe pair of hands, fare in the years to come? With
Trump’s return to the White House in November looking more likely than ever,
she will be hard-pressed to keep the transatlantic relationship on an even
keel. The past four years have seen what’s widely described as a “golden age”
for the EU-U.S. relationship under Joe Biden.
Her aide
Björn Seibert has worked closely with Biden’s National Security Adviser Jake
Sullivan to coordinate policies on everything from financial and military
support for Ukraine to China policy.
Trump,
however, famously relished antagonizing EU leaders, such as former German
Chancellor Angela Merkel, during his first presidency.
Now, with
the isolationist Ohio Senator JD Vance as his running mate, Trump could well go
further by acting on his threats to downgrade America’s investment in NATO — a
terrifying prospect for many European governments that lack their own robust
defenses.
While EU
leaders took comfort in the fact that Trump didn’t actually undermine the NATO
alliance in any significant way as president, this time around they’re braced
for Trump and Vance following through on their threats by severing the
80-year-old transatlantic bond.
Vance’s
appointment is particularly worrisome for Europe and for von der Leyen. Indeed,
the 39-year-old Senator’s assertion that he “couldn’t care less what happens in
Ukraine” threatens to leave her and the rest of Europe’s pro-Ukraine leaders
alone to face Russian aggression.
In addition
to potentially jeopardizing the transatlantic security order, Trump has set the
stage for a formidable economic clash with the EU by announcing his intention
to slap a 10 percent tariff on all imported goods.
Von der
Leyen is “going to be hit with more economic nationalism, trade war and
protectionism from a Trump administration,” said Majda Ruge, a policy expert at
the European Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank. “Where she might be
able to establish a positive relationship is on China, by playing a big role in
promoting economic security and export controls.”
It will be
up to the poised German conservative to fend off an all-out EU-US trade war.
With the
U.S. and Europe potentially parting ways over policy toward Russia, if Trump
wins in November, von der Leyen would do well to drill down on the one area
where Brussels and a Republican White House could see eye-to-eye — namely
China, according to Ruge.
“Getting to
the Americans and convincing them that she is not a rival on China and that
hitting Europe with tariffs is not in their interest, that’s one thing where
she can have leverage and lead,” Ruge said.
Trouble
close to home
Von der
Leyen’s job will be no easier on the home front, where she has to deal with
rogue Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán.
While von
der Leyen has won a key battle for centrist forces, stalwart allies such as
French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, normally
the twin engines that propel the EU, are politically weakened following dismal
election results in their respective countries. Macron’s France is especially
febrile following his decision to call a snap election in recent weeks after
dissolving his country’s parliament.
“We have a
very weakened Macron. We have at least for probably another year a rather weak
German chancellor … So the question is: How much can von der Leyen fill in at
this point?” asked Nicolai von Ondarza, a political scientist at the German
Institute for International & Security Affairs.
Compounding
the lack of support she’s being given by her traditional EU allies is open
hostility from within the bloc via right-wing populists such as Geert Wilders
in the Netherlands and Le Pen in France. Orbán is styling himself as the leader
of von der Leyen’s opposition.
The hard
right leaders promise to resist as von der Leyen tackles the number one
challenge of her second term: making huge amounts of EU money available to
reindustrialize and re-arm the EU.
Aides to von
der Leyen insist she has the benefit of experience to deal with what’s coming.
But, in a town known for speaking in bureaucratese, other EU officials are
surprisingly blunt about her challenges
“Everything
that costs anything — for example, Ukraine defense,” will prove “problematic”
during von der Leyen’s second term, said one senior EU diplomat, who was
granted anonymity to speak freely.
Her
experience of navigating politics didn’t come until later in life. Before
entering German politics for the first time in her thirties, von der Leyen had
a stint in California, as she focused on obtaining a medical doctorate and
raising seven children with her husband, Heiko von der Leyen.
Overcoming
initial skepticism both at home and in Brussels, she established herself during
her first term as a no-nonsense leader, running an institution with some 32,000
staff with a firm grip.
However, her
reliance on a small cadre of aides angered many EU leaders who felt they should
have been consulted more.
The coming
five years promise to test this approach. Will she need to build more alliances
with other EU leaders if she’s to resist the forces of populism and keep the
bloc united in the face of the challenges ahead? Is she even capable of
reaching out to bring more people inside the tent in that way?
Von der
Leyen will also be tested in areas where she is arguably weakest: Her ability
to shout as loud as Trump and Orbán and strike deals with leaders who want to
undermine her agenda.
Nevertheless,
there was never any real alternative to von der Leyen as Commission president.
After tense negotiations with political factions in the European Parliament,
which she led — as usual — by herself, accompanied by Seibert, she sailed to a
larger majority than she had in 2019.
After
winning the vote to confirm her second term, von der Leyen gave a press
conference at the European Parliament in Strasbourg. It had been an intense day
after a long campaign, following a five-year period that few Western leaders
survived with their credibility intact.
Perhaps it
wasn’t surprising that she stumbled while giving an answer to a journalist’s
question about the future of the combustion engine. “Sorry,” she said. “I’m
tired.”
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário