Ukraine confident UK will send Challenger 2 tanks
to help war effort
Kyiv hopes decision on heavy armour will pave way for
Germany to allow re-export of Leopard 2s
Dan Sabbagh
and Luke Harding
Fri 13 Jan
2023 12.15 EST
Ukraine is
confident Britain will announce it plans to send about 10 Challenger 2 tanks to
Kyiv shortly, a move it hopes will help Germany finally allow its Leopard 2s to
be re-exported to the embattled country.
A formal
announcement is anticipated on Monday but Ukrainian sources indicated they
understood that Britain had already decided in favour, as pressure mounts on
Berlin ahead of a meeting of western defence ministers next Friday.
Earlier
this week, it emerged that Britain was considering supplying Ukraine with the
tanks, following months of requests from Kyiv – with a final decision in the
hands of the prime minister, Rishi Sunak.
A handful
of Challenger 2s, taken from the UK’s existing fleet of 227, would not in
itself make much difference on the battlefield, but it would be the first time
any western country has agreed to send its own heavy armour to Ukraine.
It is hoped
in Ukraine and elsewhere this will pave the way for Germany to follow. There
are more than 2,000 Leopard 2s in Europe, held by armies in 13 countries, but
Berlin’s consent is required before any of the German-made kit can be
re-exported to Ukraine.
German
sources said Leopard 2 decision was fraught in governmental circles because of
the legacy of the second world war, but what would help the chancellor, Olaf
Scholz, is “other allied countries making similar decisions” to supply tanks.
Poland’s
president, Andrzej Duda, said on Wednesday during a visit to the western
Ukrainian city of Lviv that a company of Leopard tanks “will be handed over as
part of coalition-building”. But he added that he wanted such a move to be part
of a wider set of announcements, adding “We want it to be an international
coalition.”
Another
western official said there would be a series of coordinated announcements next
week. They suggested the moves – agreed with the UK, US and European allies –
would boost the “narrative” that Ukraine would liberate further territory in
2023.
The
delivery of western tanks and other advanced weapon systems would show the
Kremlin’s assumptions about the war’s likely progress were wrong. Moscow had
calculated the anti-Kremlin coalition would wobble, something that has not
happened, they added.
The
official said they were optimistic Ukraine would eventually win, although that
depended on “Ukrainian bravery” and “a continued flow of western arms,” they
stressed. Moscow, meanwhile, had not yet run down its stocks and had 9,000 old
T-62 tanks in reserve. Munitions factories were working “double shifts” and had
stepped up production of artillery shells.
Over the
past 11 months since the Russian invasion, the west has pursued a relatively
cautious approach to weapons supply, reluctant to give Ukraine more powerful
arms, such as tanks, for fear it could be interpreted by Moscow as escalatory.
But as Kyiv has shown it can resist the Russian onslaught, the west has been
increasingly willing to upgrade its weapons supply to help Ukraine win the war.
On
Thursday, Germany’s vice-chancellor said the country should at least allow
countries such as Poland to re-export some of their stock.
Robert
Habeck, also the economy minister, responsible in part for arms controls, said:
“Germany should not stand in the way when other countries make decisions to
support Ukraine, regardless of what decision Germany makes.”
Ukraine has
said it wants 300 western tanks as part of a wider resupply effort to help it
drive out the invaders, because heavy armour is considered the only way
possible to overwhelm the increasingly fortified Russian frontlines in the
south and east of the country.
Volodymyr
Zelenskiy, Ukraine’s president, said on Friday in an address to Lithuania’s
parliament that his country needed “urgent decisions by our entire anti-war
coalition”, including on the supply of tanks.
He said
that included “new defensive decisions” that “will give Ukrainian warriors the
opportunity to drive the Russian army out of our land. And this concerns, first
of all, modern tanks and effective artillery.”
Clarity is
expected in the run-up to the next meeting of about 50 defence ministers at the
Ukraine international contact group at Ramstein airforce base in Germany on 20
January.
Last week,
the US and Germany jointly announced each country would send infantry fighting
vehicles to Ukraine, the first time either had agreed to do so, following a
phone call between Scholz and the US president, Joe Biden.
The US
promised to send 50 Bradley vehicles and Germany 40 Marders, heavy vehicles one
notch below a tank in terms of their firepower and armour, a significant step
on the road to meeting Ukraine’s request for 600-700.
That
followed an announcement by France that it would supply lightly armoured AMX-10
RCs. On Friday, the country’s armed forces minister, Sébastien Lecornu, said
the vehicles would be delivered to Ukraine “within two months”.
Labour said
it would support any decision to donate Challenger 2 tanks and said such a move
would help reassure Ukraine. But John Healey, the shadow defence secretary,
said: “Ministers must move beyond ad hoc announcements and set out a plan for
military, economic and diplomatic support through 2023 and beyond.”
Britain’s
Ministry of Defence declined to comment on Friday. Earlier this week, when it
emerged a tank donation was under consideration, it said: “The government has
committed to match or exceed last year’s funding for military aid to Ukraine in
2023, and we will continue to build on recent donations with training and
further gifting of equipment.”
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