Giving up on 1.5C climate target would be gift to
carbon boosters, says IEA head
Exclusive: Fatih Birol says claims that limit is dead
are ‘factually incorrect and politically very wrong’
Fiona
Harvey Environment editor
Wed 30 Nov
2022 06.00 GMT
The world
can still limit global heating to 1.5C, and to claim that the target is now out
of reach is to play into the hands of fossil fuel proponents, the world’s
leading energy economist has warned.
Fatih
Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, the global
authority on energy, slammed scientists and activists who have claimed that the
recent Cop27 UN climate summit killed off hopes for the crucial 1.5C limit.
“It is
factually incorrect, and politically it is very wrong,” said Birol. “The fact
is that the chances of 1.5C are narrowing, but it is still achievable.”
Birol said
that the claims that the 1.5C limit was dead were coming from an “unusual
coalition” of scientists, activists and fossil fuel industry “incumbents”.
“I find the
emerging chorus of this unusual coalition of people saying 1.5C is dead
factually and politically wrong,” he told the Guardian. “They are jumping to
conclusions that are not borne out by the data.”
He added
that the claims were “unhelpful” to efforts to shift the global economy to a
low-carbon footing. “They are making a mistake. Proponents of the existing
energy systems will be the beneficiaries if the obituary of 1.5C is written,”
he warned.
Investors
and financial institutions could be put off by a chorus of claims that 1.5C was
dead, he added. “They will react with lower ambition,” he warned.
Birol
pointed to the surge in clean energy investment this year, in the wake of the
Ukraine war and soaring fossil fuel prices. He added that countries’ current
targets on reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions would result in a
temperature rise of 1.7C, if all pledges were fulfilled, which was within
striking distance of the 1.5C limit.
“It is
factually wrong [to say 1.5C is dead] and we are an evidence-based
organisation,” said Birol. “What I look at are the numbers. To say that 1.5C is
dead and that we will never reach a peak [in emissions] before 2030 is dogmatic
and in my view not a data-driven conclusion.”
The goal of
limiting global temperature rises to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, in line
with repeated scientific advice, came under attack from some countries at the
two-week Cop27 summit in Sharm el-Sheikh earlier this month. In the final
hours, attempts to strengthen the 1.5C limit were denied, owing to opposition
from Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states, along with, at some points, China,
Brazil and a few others. A resolution to phase down fossil fuels, proposed by
India and backed by at least 80 countries, was also removed from the final
text.
In the end,
participants such as the UK and the EU, which were pushing for a stronger
commitment on 1.5C that would require countries to come forward with firmer
policies to meet the goal, said they were “disappointed” with the result. Alok
Sharma, the UK’s president of the Cop26 summit in Glasgow last year, which
focused on the 1.5C limit, expressed his frustration in the closing speeches of
the conference. He said: “I said in Glasgow that the pulse of 1.5 degrees was
weak. Unfortunately, it remains on life support. And all of us need to look
ourselves in the mirror, and consider if we have fully risen to that challenge
over the past two weeks.”
Birol
acknowledged that the outcome of the summit was weak on the 1.5C goal, but said
countries must still keep pushing for it.
“Looked at
from the point of view of energy, it would not be accurate to say that the
global energy sector received a strong signal from Cop27,” he conceded. “In the
absence of such a clear signal, the message to key actors may seem a bit
confused.”
But he said
the economics of the transition to clean energy were clear, with wind and solar
power now cheaper than fossil fuels across much of the world, and that more
countries were seeking to expand clean energy sources as a matter of national
security and of industrial policy.
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He pointed
to global clean energy investments of $1.3tn, and said that with current
policies, clean energy investments would reach $2tn a year by 2030, which would
be an increase of about 50% from the beginning of the decade.
That amount
of investment needs to double again, however, to stay within 1.5C. “That is
extremely challenging, but it is not out of reach,” Birol said.
Last year,
the IEA, regarded as the global gold standard for energy data and policy
advice, warned that no new fossil fuel development and exploration should take
place if the world was to remain within 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. The
organisation also predicts that global greenhouse gas emissions will peak in
2025.
The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the body of the world’s
leading climate scientists, has said emissions must be reduced by 45%, compared
with 2010 levels, by 2030 to stay within 1.5C of pre-industrial temperatures.
The Cop27
summit also produced agreement on a fund for poor countries afflicted by the
worst ravages of extreme weather, known as loss and damage. Birol said this was
“a great achievement” and that countries must now concentrate on filling the
fund.
“I would
very much like to see money flowing into this fund as soon as possible, and in
as meaningful sums as possible,” he said.
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