Putin is likely to hit NATO in the Baltic if he
wins in Ukraine, EU vice president warns
Valdis Dombrovskis says ‘appeasement of the aggressor’
is not working.
BY SUZANNE
LYNCH AND BARBARA MOENS
March 7,
2022 9:07 pm
https://www.politico.eu/article/putin-hit-nato-baltic-win-ukraine-eu-valdis-dombrovskis/
Russian
President Vladimir Putin is likely to ramp up his military ambitions and
challenge NATO in the Baltic Sea countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia
unless he is stopped in Ukraine, European Commission Vice President Valdis
Dombrovskis warned in an interview with POLITICO.
The trade
commissioner, who grew up in the Soviet Union and draws on his experience as a
former prime minister of Latvia, said the EU had to take the Russian threat
seriously, after years of equivocation by Brussels toward Moscow.
“If we do
not support Ukraine, it’s not going to stop in Ukraine. Clearly Putin is now in
some kind of aggressive war mood and unfortunately it is likely that this
aggression will continue in other countries,” he said.
Asked
whether he was particularly worried about Moldova, he identified the Baltic
countries as a concern. “If you look at escalating Russia’s aggressive rhetoric
and even statements claiming Russia supporting Belarusian interests in having
access to Baltic Sea, and the increasing anti-Baltic rhetoric — well in
Ukraine, it also started with increasing anti-Ukrainian rhetoric.”
The
prediction that the Baltic countries could be next in Putin’s sights following
the invasion of Ukraine reflects the level of alarm in some quarters of the
European Commission over Putin’s next move. Dombrovskis has long warned of the
threat posed by the Russian president.
While
accepting that Russia’s nuclear threat was serious, Dombrovskis warned against
appeasing the Russian leader.
“The
question is: To what extent we are giving in to this blackmail because it can
be used all the time against everything? Putin will continue his aggressive
wars, he will always use this blackmail,” he said. “These are lessons that
should have been learned before. Appeasement of the aggressor is not working,
and the aggressor needs to be stopped by all means.”
Dombrovskis
was also skeptical about diplomatic overtures to Putin. “The question is
whether they bring some tangible results in terms of stopping the war, or at
least providing a cease-fire or humanitarian corridors. Currently, none of
these unfortunately materialized.” French President Emmanuel Macron has been
playing a lead role in Europe’s outreach to Putin, with the Russian president
also speaking to European Council President Charles Michel and German
Chancellor Olaf Scholz in recent days.
The former
Latvian prime minister stressed new sanctions on Russia could come within days.
“Nothing
should be off the table,” said Dombrovsksis, including in the energy sector.
“We should do more, because this aggression unfortunately is not stopping so we
should see a way — in a sense —to stop Putin’s ability to finance this war.”
Although
Dombrovskis is taking a hard line, it is far from clear that Europe would be
able to crack down hard on Russian energy as Germany is dead set against such a
measure.
The
measures under discussion are in the field of crypto assets; steps to widen the
list of banks cut off from the SWIFT payments system; and removing Russia’s
most favored nation status at the World Trade Organization.
Dombrovskis
also wanted to extend import bans already agreed on for Belarus to Russia to
avoid a loophole round the embargo.
On the
possibility of targeting Russian oil and gas, Dombrovskis said an assessment by
the European Commission was ongoing, but he stressed that “nothing should be
off the table.” Amid a surge in oil prices following speculation that the
United States could ban Russian oil, the Commission said that “doing something
on oil maybe somewhat less disruptive than doing something on gas.”
Baltics look to Britain to firm up NATO support
Post-Brexit Britain has carved out an important role
for itself in the Baltic security debate.
BY CRISTINA
GALLARDO
March 8,
2022 4:05 am
https://www.politico.eu/article/baltics-uk-security-nato-fears-russia-attack/
LONDON —
Amid fears they could be Russia’s next target, the Baltic countries hope
Britain can amplify their calls for more military support from NATO.
Security
cooperation between the U.K. and the three Baltic states — Estonia, Latvia and
Lithuania — has long been regarded as strong and unaffected by the drama of
Brexit.
But since
Russia invaded Ukraine last month, this relationship has taken on a new
dimension, and become a clear axis in Europe’s wider security debate.
The Baltics
have compiled a “wishlist” of demands to better protect their borders, including
permanent NATO bases and air defense systems, which the region does not
currently have. They are painfully aware that Russian President Vladimir Putin
demanded in December that NATO withdraw all its forces from the region, once
part of the Soviet Union.
Their
requests have met with a sympathetic response in London, where the government
is happy to support their case.
Echoing the
Baltics’ worst fears, U.K. Defense Secretary Ben Wallace warned last month
Putin “will use everything” in the Baltic states. “He doesn’t believe the
Baltic states are really countries,” he told the BBC.
A British
defense official described the Baltics as “the frontline of NATO security” and
said: “We share their concerns that, now more than ever, NATO’s eastern flank
needs to deter a Russia that has no regard for international law and sovereign
borders.”
In a sign
of the importance with which Britain now views the Baltics, the U.K’s Foreign
Secretary Liz Truss traveled to the Lithuanian capital Vilnius last week in an
attempt to reassure governments it has their back.
“What we
have to do now is we have to strengthen NATO, we particularly have to
strengthen the eastern flank,” she told the House of Commons Monday. “We have
to be serious about defense spending, right across NATO.”
Even with
the U.K.’s support, however, the rest of NATO will take some convincing to meet
the Baltic demands — and especially to pay for them. For years, NATO hesitated
over having significant troop numbers in the Baltic countries amid concerns
this could antagonize the Kremlin. Members also worried about the cost of
establishing permanent bases in the region and carrying out military exercises.
Baltic
wishlist
Edward
Lucas, a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis, said Britain
is playing a “very important role” in helping to sort the “mess” that is
security in the Baltic region. The current situation, he said, is characterized
by “a very complicated command structure, a lack of military clout on the
ground, a lot of wishful thinking about how things would sort themselves out in
a crisis and a real lack of exercises to tests how things should actually
work.”
One reason
Britain is well-placed to do this is its leadership of the Joint Expeditionary
Force (JEF) of 10 Northern European countries, which includes non-NATO members
such as Finland and Sweden as well as Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
Launched in
2012, the JEF is seen as more agile than NATO and could provide a rapid
response in the first 12 hours should Russia attack one of its members. Rapid
deployment of additional troops in the event of an attack is crucial for the
Baltics, which are close to signing an agreement among themselves for
mobilizing national forces to assist a fellow Baltic country without waiting
for a NATO decision, said Rihards Kols, chair of the Latvian parliament’s
foreign relations committee.
Through
JEF, Northern European countries have already agreed to carry out maritime and
air exercises.
“We see the
U.K. as very important for our region,” said Kols. “Overall, the U.K. has shown
really outstanding leadership in this crisis. We can always say that when it
comes to these kinds of situations, the U.K.’s head is on the right place, on
the shoulders.”
Gabrielius
Landsbergis, Lithuania’s minister for foreign affairs, said the Baltic states
are approaching the situation as if they are Western Berlin during the Cold
War.
“That means
that we need … all the credibility to defend the territory as NATO would defend
any other territory in its alliance,” he told a U.K. parliamentary committee
last week.
As the most
exposed Baltic state, Lithuania has requested a dedicated strategy, Landsbergis
said. It fears the Kremlin might attempt to grab the Suwalki gap, a stretch of
land connecting Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave on the Baltic Sea with Belarus.
British and Lithuanian intelligence forces are now working together to
strengthen this area.
Latvia has
asked Britain for more maritime and military industrial cooperation, and that
aircrafts be placed on Latvia’s military airfields.
Estonia, as
the host of a British-led battalion, has seen the number of British troops
doubled in recent weeks, and it has received more Challenger 2 tanks and
armored fighting vehicles from the U.K.
Long way to
go
Although
NATO has three such battalions in each of the Baltic countries — with Britain
leading the one stationed in Estonia, Canada leading another in Latvia and the
U.S. heading the group in Lithuania. These are not intended to withstand a
Russian attack but to convey the message to Moscow that any assault would be an
attack against the alliance as a whole.
“This
relies very much on the idea that Russia wouldn’t want to kill Canadians,
Germans or Brits,” Lucas said. “That’s better than nothing and it worked in
Western Berlin during the Cold War. But we don’t have air missile defense for
those and we need that. And we don’t have the intelligence surveillance and
reconnaissance capabilities, and the maritime strategy that we need.”
“Ever since
the early 1990s whenever Russia has done something unacceptable we’ve done the
minimum to confront it at most or nothing — and then we thought it would go
away,” he said. “But every time it comes back.”
Kols said
the Baltics were often labelled “alarmists” by EU partners when they flagged
concerns about Russia in previous years, adding cooperation with Britain is
“paramount.”
Lucas is
optimistic that supporting the Baltics is also good for the Brits, particularly
since Brexit.
“This gets us back into very close cooperation with European governments,” he said. “Looking at it very crudely, it creates a sort of great pro-British lobby where you’ve got seven countries that are really, really keen and grateful for doing the stuff that we are doing. And that is a good antidote when the French start making fuss about other things"
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