Should an independent Scotland join the EU?
Started 05/07/2021 Future
“In the
event of independence, Scotland’s EU membership should be restored
immediately”. This was a suggestion sent in from Jakob on the Conference on the
Future of Europe platform. A similar idea was sent in by Jock. Given that
Debating Europe wants to support the work of the Conference, we thought it
might be fun to take Jakob and Jock’s idea and put it to a couple of experts
for them to respond.
Scotland
voted for Europe. When the people of Scotland voted to remain in the United
Kingdom in the 2014 referendum on independence, they did so under the
impression that remaining in the UK would mean remaining in the EU. Ultimately,
though, Scotland was dragged out of the EU by Brexit, even though a majority of
Scots (62%) voted Remain. This discrepancy is the justification for the
recently-elected coalition of Scottish National Party (SNP) and Greens to seek
another referendum on Scottish independence.
So far,
Boris Johnson’s government in London hasn’t taken a clear position on whether
it would agree to an independence referendum. If, however, Scotland were to
embark on the road towards independence, should the EU welcome it with open
arms? What precedent would that set for other independence movements around
Europe? Could Scottish accession to the EU damage our relationship with the UK?
What do our
readers think? We had a comment from Andrea arguing that Scotland should hold
another independence referendum as soon as possible and take the UK’s place in
the EU.
We put this
comment to Kirsty Hughes, founder and director of the Scottish Centre for
European Relations. Does she think an independent Scotland should join the EU?
I think
there are several parts to this question. First of all, will there be another
independence referendum? The Scottish National Party and the Greens, which are
both pro-independence, got a clear majority in the recent elections. Therefore,
I do think there is a mandate for a referendum, but it’s not one that Boris
Johnson is necessarily recognizing. Yet, there may be a referendum within the
next five years. At the moment, the opinion is 50/50, so we cannot be sure
which side would win.
What has
become clear is that the pro-independence vote is very much a pro-EU vote.
There used to be a significant number of people who supported independence but
had voted for leaving the EU back in 2016. And now, they seem to be a very
small group. There is also a larger number of voters who wouldn’t support
independence who voted leave. Before, they may have supported remain or leave,
but the people who support independence today are pretty much pro-EU.
We put the
same question to Erik Bergkvist, a Swedish Member of the European Parliament,
who sits with the S&D group. Would he like Scotland to join the EU?
I regret
that the UK left and I would like the UK to return to the EU. But if Scotland
decides to leave the UK, and it’s done by the book, then I would welcome
Scotland to the European Union if they would like to apply for membership.
Our next
comment comes from Maskedman. He expects a complicated (and possibly even
violent) split of Northern Ireland and Scotland from the UK.
For a
reaction to this gloomy prediction, we spoke to Andreas Rahmatian, Professor of
Law at the University of Glasgow. How should the EU respond in the event of a
breakup of the United Kingdom?
The EU will
most likely stay quiet on the internal issues of a state as it did during the
Scottish independence referendum in 2014. This also applies to EU member states
(Spain with regard to Catalonia). The UK has no written constitution and no
regulations about a possible secession of Scotland from the rest of the UK. The
treaty of the Acts of Union of 1707 which unified the Kingdoms of England and
of Scotland and formed Great Britain is understood to allow both parties to
leave, but there is no procedure how that would have to be done.
At the
moment, England is less keen on maintaining the Union with Scotland as one
would think: this is not an absurd idea if you look at the current governing
branch of the Tory party to which Boris Johnson belongs. This group of Tories
which is in power now does not care much about Scotland at all. Politically, if
Scotland wants to leave, the current London Government is probably the best one
they could possibly have for such a plan. Because for them England is really
their political focus and Scotland is just seen as a financial burden.
Ironically, the Tory party is meant to be the Conservative and Unionist Party
but they are actually not unionist at all at the moment. This was still
different under Theresa May because she was a more traditional Tory in this
regard. But for Boris Johnson, Scotland is a side issue.
Importantly,
Scotland must prepare a Scottish constitution if and when it becomes
independent. This new constitution would also have to stipulate clearly the
possibility for dual (Scottish-English) citizenship of English residents in
Scotland. By doing so, it would prevent a lot of tensions and possibly unrest
within Scotland if independence were to happen.
For another
perspective, we asked MEP Erik Bergkvist the same question.
I think the
EU is behaving correctly, by not interfering in internal processes of the
United Kingdom. But an area where the EU shouldn’t stay silent is the internal
market. If you want to be part of the internal market, it has to be borderless
and Ireland is part of the internal market. I would say, the UK has created a
problem with Northern Ireland. This was anticipated, we told the UK that by
leaving the internal market, they are not making things easier for Northern
Ireland. It is a fragile situation, which I hope will be solved peacefully, but
we can see how explosive things still are.
Should an
independent Scotland join the EU? How should the EU respond in the event of a
breakup of the United Kingdom? Let us know your thoughts and comments in the
form below and we’ll take them to policymakers and experts for their reactions!
Image
Credits: Creative Commons (BY-SA 2.0) – John Allan
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