Whoever
leads UKIP is no threat to Theresa May
Labour
and UKIP infighting could mean a new Conservative ascendancy.
By
Matthew Goodwin
8/4/16, 5:26 AM CET
LONDON — Britain
is in the midst of two party leadership contests that could reshape
the political landscape for decades to come — and lead to the
Conservative Party enjoying a new era of dominance.
Contrary to the
unwritten law in politics that the summer is quiet, both the main
opposition Labour Party and the insurgent United Kingdom Independence
Party have been engulfed by factionalism.
In the Labour Party
Jeremy Corbyn is having to fight for the right to remain leader,
while in UKIP the race to find a replacement for Nigel Farage has
descended into an unprecedented outbreak of infighting.
In recent years the
Conservative Party’s claim to be the “natural party of
government” was beginning to sound hollow. In 2010 the fall of New
Labour was followed not by a Conservative majority but by David
Cameron being forced to share power with the Liberal Democrats.
While there are
risks of a possible economic downturn and protracted negotiations
with the EU, May is the party leader most in tune with the national
mood.
While the
Conservatives did manage to win a majority in 2015, it was hardly
inspiring. A majority of only 12 seats, the smallest majority since
1974, brought little security. With 66 percent turnout, the party had
actually only won support from 25 percent of the population —
hardly a compelling mandate.
But in the aftermath
of Britain’s vote for Brexit the Conservative Party’s competitors
have plunged into full-blown crises. Three factors are now paving the
way for a new Conservative ascendancy.
The national mood
Even before the
leadership elections, there was a new climate in post-referendum
Britain that heavily favors the Conservatives.
For the average
voter, the three most pressing issues are Brexit, immigration, and
the economy. Conservatives hold a clear and often striking lead over
Labour on all three issues, leading by 18 points on Brexit, 18 points
on the economy and 8 points on immigration, according to YouGov
figures.
Theresa May has also
got off to a strong start as prime minister. While there are risks of
a possible economic downturn and protracted negotiations with the EU,
May is the party leader most in tune with the national mood. Some
might talk of the need to establish a progressive alliance to keep
Britain in the EU but the reality is that Brexit was a majority view
in an estimated 421 of the 574 constituencies in England and Wales —
including 60 percent of Labour-held seats.
In appointing the
“three Brexiteers” — David Davis, Boris Johnson and Liam Fox —
to her cabinet team, May has attempted to appeal directly to these
voters. If she is also able to reform free movement and credibly
claim to have delivered on immigration, which most voters have
supported reducing since the 1960s, then she will be wildly popular.
Decimated Labour
Party
Labour, however,
risks becoming irrelevant. Though Corbyn is already the most
unpopular Labour leader since pollsters began probing voters’
views, he is currently the strong favorite to be reelected by Labour
members.
Corbynistas may
point to the high turnout at their rallies but nationally the picture
is dire. While 52 percent of voters feel that May is the best choice
for prime minister among British party leaders, only 18 percent feel
the same way about Corbyn.
Given that Labour
has ceded virtually all of its territory in Scotland, to even stand a
chance of winning a majority at the next general election the party
will need to establish a 13-point lead over the Conservatives.
Currently, it is polling at 28-30 percent, close to the same level
that brought it defeat in 2010 and 2015. The Conservatives,
meanwhile, are nearing 40 percent.
Corbyn has also
completely lost the support of his own MPs. If, as some suggest, his
reelection in September triggers a split, a once proud movement could
quite plausibly be consigned to the wilderness for a generation. This
is reflected in new polling by YouGov, which suggests that while 28
percent of the population feel instinctively loyal to the Labour
brand, any splinter party on either the radical-left or center-left
would receive only 13-15 percent of the national vote.
Under the U.K.’s
first-past-the-post system this would spell complete disaster.
The UKIP factor
UKIP has been
plagued by infighting since the referendum. Following the resignation
of Farage, the favored candidate to replace him, MEP Steven Woolfe,
was blocked from standing for the leadership by the party’s
National Executive Committee. Farage was furious and publicly
dismissed the ruling body of his own party as “amateurs.”
While not all
UKIP voters lean toward the Conservatives, many do. At the 2014
European Parliament elections, for example, one in two UKIP voters
had previously voted Conservative.
Many inside UKIP
trace the decision to a much deeper rivalry between Farage and
ex-Conservatives Douglas Carswell and Neil Hamilton who some claim
are trying to stage a coup, sidelining the Farageists and pushing
UKIP down a more moderate path.
There are two
possible outcomes. Either Farage and his followers will continue to
seek internal reform, calling an extraordinary meeting, scrapping the
ruling body and coalescing around a candidate like Woolfe to lead in
their tradition. Or they will fail and form a new group, perhaps
modeled on the 5Star Movement in Italy and organized around
influential UKIP donor Arron Banks, who has amassed a considerable
amount of data through his referendum Leave.EU platform.
Whatever the outcome
the collapse of Labour and UKIP will leave May and the Conservatives
as the main beneficiary.
While not all UKIP
voters lean toward the Conservatives, many do. At the 2014 European
Parliament elections, for example, one in two UKIP voters had
previously voted Conservative.
So long as May
pitches directly to these voters, she could win back around half of
the UKIP electorate and bring the Conservatives dozens of new seats
where, currently, Labour MPs have small majorities and are hanging on
by a thread.
The Labour Party,
meanwhile, will increasingly fall back to become a party of London,
university towns and its working-class bastions where healthy
majorities were built up generations ago. Middle England and swing
seats will be well beyond its reach.
In the absence of
any serious and coherent opposition, Prime Minister May could yet
lead the Conservative Party to heights that they have not reached
since the heyday of the only other woman prime minister in British
political history.
Matthew Goodwin is
professor of politics and international relations at the University
of Kent and a senior fellow at Chatham House.
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