Corbyn
is Cameron’s real Brexit headache
Why
London’s mayor will struggle to kill the Cameron show.
By MATTHEW GOODWIN
3/3/16, 5:32 AM CET
LONDON — Those who
want Britain to leave the European Union received a major boost last
week when Boris Johnson, the mayor of London and a Conservative MP,
joined their camp. Hot on the heals of David Cameron’s
renegotiation with EU leaders in Brussels, Boris’ announcement was
hailed in Westminster as a game-changer. Such was the “Boris
effect” on Brexit anxiety that the pound plummeted to its lowest
level against the dollar in seven years. Euroskeptics were back in
the game.
Yet while those
campaigning for a Leave vote are still jubilant, a close reading of
how arguments play on each side suggests that Cameron and Labour
Party leader Jeremy Corbyn could more than counter Boris’ move —
provided they work together.
The significance of
Boris
Looked at in one
way, Boris’ decision to align with Leave has become even more
significant since he declared his hand. Following Britain’s
renegotiation there has been no noticeable rise in public support for
remaining in the EU. It was not supposed to be this way. Prior to the
announcement of Cameron’s reform package many voters had indicated
to pollsters that they would approve of a renegotiation that
delivered restrictions on benefits for EU migrant workers, opt-outs
from “ever closer union” and protections for non-eurozone
countries. But none of the polls conducted since the end of the
renegotiation have uncovered a significant shift towards Remain.
While Euroskeptics
have not seen an upsurge of support either, they can claim to have
neutralized the anticipated bounce for Remain. Either voters were not
paying that much attention to the renegotiation to begin with or they
have concluded that the wrangling has not made much difference to
their vote. Whatever the reason, any hope Remainers had of using the
deal to convert wavering moderates looks misplaced.
More worrying for
Cameron is that the lack of any discernible bounce in support also
applies to his own Conservative Party supporters. It appears that
rank-and-file Tories have also not been won over by their leader’s
efforts to extract concessions from Brussels. On the contrary
Conservatives remain seriously divided on the referendum, typically
breaking 45-35 in favor of Leave with the remainder undecided. A
YouGov poll of Tory members for the Times on Wednesday put Remain at
31 percent and Leave at 59 percent. Put another way, among all voters
who intend to vote for Britain to Remain in the EU only around one in
four voted Conservative at the 2015 general election.
This is where Boris
could prove highly significant. Between now and June the charismatic
populist could repeatedly undermine Cameron’s quest to bring as
many of these Conservatives as possible over to Remain.
A crowded field
Yet while Boris
could make life extremely difficult for Cameron, his effect on the
overall race may prove exaggerated. Consider the messenger and the
message. There is no doubt that Boris is popular. For a referendum on
an issue that has never excited British voters as much as it has Tory
MPs, it is significant that Boris enjoys recognition among the
politically disengaged. Recent polling by Ipsos-MORI suggests that
around one in three of all voters, regardless of how they intend to
vote in June, think that the London mayor will be important when they
are deciding how to vote. Boris also holds sway among key politically
disinterested moderates — who could represent as much as 40 percent
of the electorate. But he is also not the only messenger voters are
listening to.
Euroskeptics face a
risk that the benefit of Boris will be “crowded out” by a handful
of pro-Remain politicians who are also seen as influential voices.
This is heightened by the fact that the reach of other prominent
Brexiters, notably U.K. Independence Party leader Nigel Farage, is
limited to existing, mainly old Leavers. Consistent with other
surveys, the Ipsos-MORI data shows Boris surrounded by a cluster of
pro-Remain politicians who also hold respectable ratings — Corbyn,
Chancellor George Osborne, Scottish nationalist leader Nicola
Sturgeon and Home Secretary Theresa May.
For every
intervention from Boris or his largely unknown Euroskeptic cabinet
colleagues there will be two or three from pro-EU figures who carry
significant weight. Boris is especially likely to be overshadowed by
Cameron who is — far and away — the most influential messenger in
this debate.
Around half of
voters leaning toward Remain, and two fifths of those leaning towards
Leave or undecided, consider Cameron an important influence. It is
also worth pointing out that in our own research we found that
Cameron also helps drive support for Remain among Labour and Liberal
Democrat voters, pushing their already strong support for staying in
the EU to new heights — although he will still need Corbyn’s help
to build a commanding majority.
That Cameron is a
strong and influential messenger explains why the Remain camp is
putting his face on everything, and probably plans to mobilize
younger left-leaning progressives by contrasting Cameron and Corbyn
with a more divisive figure: Do you want Farage to decide your
future?
The problem with the
sovereignty argument
Like many
Euroskeptics who converted to the cause during the 1990s Boris hopes
to cut through by doubling down on the sovereignty argument. His
motive for backing Leave was reflected in his question to Cameron in
the House of Commons during their first exchange after Boris came out
for Out: “In what way does the renegotiation return sovereignty to
Britain’s Houses of Parliament?”
If this continues
and progressive voters stay at home then the probability of a Brexit
vote increases significantly.
Arguments over
sovereignty, though popular on the Conservative fringe, are likely to
be insufficient to turn Britain’s large number of Euroskeptics into
withdrawalists. As revealed last week in findings from the new
British Social Attitudes survey, there are essentially two arguments
that Outers need to win if they are to fulfill their Brexit dream.
First, they need to mobilize widespread public angst over the
perceived threat that the EU poses to British identity. This feeling
of identity threat is not insignificant — 47 percent of Brits share
this concern. But the research also shows clearly why only tapping
into these anxieties over threatened identity — and even more
narrowly the question of sovereignty — may fail to push someone
with Euroskeptic views into voting for Brexit.
To support quitting
altogether, voters need to be convinced of the economic case for
leaving. Among those who feel that the EU threatens their identity
and believe that Brexit would be economically beneficial, support for
leaving the EU surpasses 80 percent. But among those who only feel
the latter and not the former, Brexit remains a minority view,
supported by around 40 percent. This would suggest that between now
and June 23 Euroskeptics need to devote less time to fairly obscure
constitutional points and more to addressing the fact that only one
in four voters currently believe that the economy would be stronger
after Brexit. This is their fundamental challenge and it is one that
Boris and the skeptics must overcome if they are to win.
Could Corbyn help
Cameron?
Without a majority
of his own voters, Cameron’s strategy hinges on his ability to
mobilize a very different base of support to that which won him last
year’s general election, namely younger, socially liberal
progressives who lean toward Labour, the Liberal Democrats or the
Scottish National Party. This is not impossible but it is a riskier
path up the mountain.
Many of these Remain
voters turned out against Cameron at the 2015 general election and
have been repelled by his rhetoric on migrant workers, his response
to the refugee crisis and his party’s austerity drive and divisions
over Europe. This is where Jeremy Corbyn — one of the most
unpopular Labour leaders of all time — becomes important.
Corbyn need not
agree with Cameron’s message. But he will need to start sounding
far more enthusiastic about the case for remaining in the EU if he is
to help Conservatives mobilize Left. So far the Labour leader has
sounded far from convincing, which could be deeply problematic. In
sharp contrast to the pro-EU passion of previous Labour leaders like
Tony Blair or Ed Miliband, Corbyn sounds like a reluctant passenger,
first criticizing the EU for “operating like a free market” and
now failing to turn up the volume when making his case for keeping
Britain in.
If this continues
and progressive voters stay at home then the probability of a Brexit
vote increases significantly. Cameron may thus want to spend less
time worrying about Boris and more time thinking about how to
energize Corbyn.
Professor Matthew
Goodwin, University of Kent, Senior Fellow at Chatham House and with
the ESRC ‘UK in a Changing Europe’ programme. He tweets
@GoodwinMJ
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