Portugal’s
local elections poised to be another win for Europe’s far right
Who will
govern the biggest cities is anyone’s guess, but anger over the housing crisis
may help the ultranationalist Chega party conquer smaller city halls.
October
10, 2025 4:01 am CET
By Aitor
Hernández-Morales
Five
months ago, Portugal’s snap national election saw the far-right Chega party
become the second-largest force in the country’s parliament. On Sunday, 9.3
million Lusitanian voters are headed back to the polls, this time for
nationwide local elections.
The race
is set to be a nail-biter, with the top candidates in the big cities of Lisbon
and Porto tied in the polls. Meanwhile, the far right is poised to make major
advances in the country’s neglected southern and interior regions, where voters
are increasingly backing the party’s antiestablishment and anti-immigrant
rhetoric.
Though
boasting lawmakers in both the Portuguese and European parliaments, Chega has
yet to conquer any city halls. Sunday’s elections could be decisive in
expanding the far-right party’s presence beyond Lisbon and Brussels. They may
also underscore a European trend of extremist forces consolidating power,
campaigning on mainstream politicians’ inability to tackle issues like the
bloc-wide housing crisis.
It’s the
housing crisis, stupid
Indeed,
the top issue in every Portuguese city — no matter its size or location — is
the high cost of housing.
The
problem is particularly critical in Lisbon, where average home prices have shot
up by nearly 80 percent over the last five years and are currently hovering at
€5,769 per square meter. Incumbent Mayor Carlos Moedas — a former European
commissioner — has sought to justify his tenure by drawing attention to the
2,881 families his administration provided with new homes, but unimpressed
critics estimate 150,000 homes are needed.
Moedas
has also been criticized for not doing enough to stop locals from being
displaced by wealthy tourists. His challenger, Socialist Party candidate
Alexandra Leitão, has made tackling excessive tourism a top priority, and is
promising to crack down on short-term rentals and impose a moratorium on new
hotels until the city can devise a plan to deal with the challenge.
The two
are currently neck and neck in the polls, but one issue that could break the
tie is discontent over the mayor’s handling of last month’s deadly funicular
disaster. This week, victims’ families complained that no one from City Hall
had reached out to them since the catastrophe, and Moedas is under fire for his
controversial decision to delay any hearings regarding the accident until after
the elections.
Even if
he isn’t punished by voters, the crash could still complicate his path to a
second term: The mayor isn’t expected to secure a governing majority, and his
ability to form either a minority or coalition government will hinge on Chega’s
support. Given that the far-right party’s lead candidate Bruno Mascarenhas
brought an unsuccessful censure motion against Moedas for his response to the
disaster, negotiations could prove tricky.
Meanwhile,
in Porto …
In
Portugal’s second-largest city, Sunday’s election marks the first time
center-right Mayor Rui Moreira won’t be on the ballot in 12 years. Instead,
conservative Pedro Duarte is and former Member of the European Parliament and
Socialist Party candidate Manuel Pizarro are locked in a tight race that is
similarly dominated by the housing crisis.
Duarte
wants to use tax breaks to goad the owners of the city’s 20,000 vacant homes to
rent them out at affordable prices, but Pizarro argues his own plan to build
5,000 affordable homes on municipal land could be implemented much faster.
Duarte
also has a radical proposal to raise the tourist tax to make public transport
free for all city residents — but Pizarro’s counterplan to slash the speed
limit on Porto’s innermost ring road could prove more controversial.
With
neither candidate expected to secure a governing majority, Chega may ultimately
determine the winning vision.
Beyond
the biggest cities
As the
most-voted party in 60 cities in last May’s snap national election, Chega’s
candidates are now poised to enjoy similar success in many of those
municipalities.
Polls
indicate far-right influencer and MP Rita Matias is in a three-way tie to
govern Sintra, Portugal’s second-most populous municipality, where housing
prices are increasing due to growing demand from displaced Lisbon residents.
Chega’s candidates have even greater odds of winning Elvas, a former fortress
city on the Spanish border, and semirural communities like Viana do Alentejo
and Benavente.
But the
far-right party is most focused on the Algarve region, where locals are
struggling to balance the country’s lowest average wages with a steadily
increasing cost of living due to the presence of foreign tourists and retirees.
By promoting the narrative that seasonal migrants are to blame for local woes,
Chega has gained traction among southern electors who feel abandoned by the
hyper-centralized Portuguese state.
And while
the latest polls still suggest conventional parties will stave off Chega’s bid
to take Faro, the far right could win in other southern cities and gain enough
council seats to make some municipalities virtually ungovernable.
Polls
will close on the Portuguese mainland at 8 p.m. GMT, with exit poll projections
published an hour later, when voting ends in the Azores archipelago. The
country’s electoral system is remarkably efficient, so a final tally is
expected before midnight.
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