Brussels Playbook: 6 months of war — Greek spy scandal returns — Finns go bare

 

Brussels Playbook: 6 months of war — Greek spy scandal returns — Finns go bare

BY SUZANNE LYNCH

AUGUST 24, 2022 7:06 AM

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/brussels-playbook/6-months-of-war-greek-spy-scandal-returns-finns-go-bare/

 

POLITICO Brussels Playbook

By SUZANNE LYNCH

with ZOYA SHEFTALOVICH

 

KYIV ON EDGE: Ukrainians are bracing for a possible barrage of Russian military strikes today as they mark Independence Day — the anniversary of Ukraine’s break with the Soviet Union in 1991. It’s also exactly six months since Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his invasion of Ukraine.

 

Tensions are high: In Kyiv, large gatherings have been banned until Friday, amid fears of attacks. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned Moscow that any attempts to target Independence Day celebrations would incite a “powerful response.” He also pledged to liberate Crimea from Russian occupation.

 

FLYING THE YELLOW AND BLUE: Despite the tensions, today is also a day of celebration. Throughout Europe, events are being planned to mark Ukraine’s national holiday, six months into the brutal war.

 

Brussels has a jam-packed day of activities, beginning with a church service in the Cathedral of St. Michael and St. Gudula, and culminating with the illumination of the EU buildings and the Grand Place in Ukrainian colors tonight. (The Berlaymont lit up in yellow and blue last night.) European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will be among those participating in the unfurling of a giant 30-meter Ukrainian flag in the Grand Place at 11:30 a.m. this morning. And the Manneken Pis will don a national Ukrainian costume today.

 

In Prague, outside the Russian Embassy, a giant sculpture is being erected of a woman giving Moscow the two-fingered salute.

 

Vilnius, Lithuania is hosting a concert and all-night rave with DJs from Kyiv.

 

Meanwhile, the United States is expected to pledge another $3 billion to Ukraine.

 

REFUGEE DIARIES: This morning, POLITICO publishes the third instalment of our Refugee Diaries project. We asked five Ukrainian refugees to reflect on past commemorations, share their hopes for the future, and write a letter to fellow refugees spending this year’s Independence Day away from home. Worth your time.

 

SHOWING SOLIDARITY: A host of European and world leaders lined up to pledge solidarity with Ukraine at Tuesday’s Crimea Platform summit, with most delivering video messages, though Poland’s President Andrzej Duda attended in person. French President Emmanuel Macron, significantly, said Paris would continue to support Ukraine “in the long term.”

 

Counting the cost: Six months into the war, Zelenskyy’s economic adviser Oleg Ustenko told POLITICO in an interview that Ukraine is currently running a $5 billion deficit each month, which is mostly being covered by financial assistance from its allies.

 

But the long-term financial consequences of the invasion are only beginning to be felt. Some 40 percent of Ukraine’s GDP derived from exports before the war, Ustenko told our colleague Leonie Kijewski — a figure that has now plummeted, regardless of the recent resumption of exports from the Black Sea.

 

Oil price cap call: Ustenko had a message for Europe when it comes to Russian oil, arguing that an international price cap is needed and predicting that it will be introduced by year end. “By the end of the year for sure, the issue is going to be solved. Russia is going to lose their oil revenues … My understanding is that we are very close to a final decision,” he told Leonie, estimating that the price cap could be around half the current $80 per barrel Russia receives.

 

Not just oil: Ukraine also hasn’t forgotten that Europe is still buying Russian gas — even if the flows have significantly slowed. Ustenko argued that the international community should also impose a price cap on Russian gas, a proposal that has so far been a no-no.

 

Speaking of gas: While Russia is in a strong position when it comes to gas in the short run, the long game for state-controlled Gazprom is fraught, argue Amy Myers Jaffe, the managing director of the Climate Policy Lab, and Joe Webster of the Atlantic Council in this op-ed for POLITICO. Unlike oil, which has more fungible transport, they write, Gazprom is finding it hard to divert its Siberian gas.

 

Bulgaria not toeing the line: But as POLITICO’s Boryana Dzhambazova writes in this despatch from Sofia, Bulgaria is risking a relapse in its Gazprom addiction, with the country’s caretaker government slipping back into old habits.

 

NOW READ THIS: Our colleague Matt Karnitschnig reports that Western diplomats are concerned that Russia plans to use Iran as a backdoor to circumvent international sanctions if Tehran’s nuclear deal comes back into force. Moscow dispatched teams of trade and finance officials and execs from Gazprom and other companies to Tehran in July following Putin’s meeting with the Iranian leadership to lay the groundwork for closer cooperation, Matt writes.

 

NUCLEAR FEARS: Meanwhile, U.N. political affairs chief Rosemary DiCarlo warned the Security Council on Tuesday that an agreement is urgently needed to stop all military activity around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine, to prevent a “catastrophic” disaster. “The facility must not be used as part of any military operation, and an agreement on a safe perimeter of demilitarization to ensure the safety of the area should be reached,” she said. The U.N. reiterated its call for the International Atomic Energy Agency to get access to the plant.

 

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GREEK SPYING SCANDAL  Share on Twitter  Share on Facebook  Share on Linkedin  Share on Handclap47

PREDATORGATE LATEST: The spying scandal involving Predator malware that engulfed the government of Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis is back on the agenda today, with the House Committee on Institutions and Transparency convening in the parliament to discuss the appointment of Themistoklis Demiris as the new chief of the National Intelligence Service (EVP).

 

Recap: The former head of the security agency, Panagiotis Kontoleon, resigned earlier this month over revelations that the EVP had illegally tapped the phones of MEP Nikos Androulakis, the leader of the PASOK party, and journalists.

 

Not happy: But already, Greek opposition parties are crying foul. The main opposition party, Syriza, as well as senior PASOK figures say they will not support Demiris’ appointment, Nektaria Stamouli writes in to report. “He is not a bipartisan choice, he is the choice of Mitsotakis, who is the mastermind of the scandal and is obviously taking over with a mandate to cover up and not to clear up the surveillance scandal,” Syriza said in a statement.

 

Inquiry call: PASOK has called for a parliamentary inquiry into the use of wiretapping under the current government, which Syriza said it will back. The proposal will be voted on during a parliament plenary session next Monday. Mitsotakis’ New Democracy party, however, will seek to expand the scope of the inquiry so that it stretches back to 2012 — a period that covers the activities of previous governments. Surprise, surprise.

 

Piqued response: Following the European Commission’s letter to Athens on July 29 looking for answers on Predatorgate, the response is in. In a letter dated August 2, the Greek permanent representative to the EU had this reply for the Commission’s Directorate General for Justice, according to officials familiar with the content of the letter: “Taking into account the fact that national security should be treated with utmost sensitivity, we would consider it prudent in the future to avoid hastily endorsing verbatim specific publications coming from political media that do not always distinguish themselves for accuracy and objectivity.”

 

Get the message: While the response insists that Greek authorities are at the Commission’s disposal “in a spirit of cooperation and working together as a team for our common cause of protecting the rule of law,” Athens’ message is loud and clear: butt out. “I truly believe that such a first step would be more constructive and instrumental, rather than promptly engaging in written correspondence based on media reports that amply remain to prove substantiated,” the letter adds, according to the same officials, Nektaria reports.

 

IN OTHER NEWS  Share on Twitter  Share on Facebook  Share on Linkedin  Share on Handclap1

SUPER SALE: Axioma, a super yacht linked to Russian steel billionaire Dmitry Pumpyansky, was auctioned off in Gibraltar on Tuesday, in the first sale of an oligarch’s assets since the February 24 invasion. Gibraltar’s government seized the yacht in early March, and in July JP Morgan secured its sale because its formal owner, Pyrene Investments, owed the bank more than $20 million. It’s unknown who bought the Axioma. The Guardian has a write-up.

 

MORE FINN FUN: Finland’s Sanna Marin has had to apologize again — this time for a picture of two topless women taken inside the prime minister’s residence last month. The snap was taken after the Ruisrock music festival in July. “The picture is not appropriate,” Marin acknowledged, after the photo leaked on social media.

 

ECONOMIC WOES: New figures published Tuesday have revived fears that Europe could be heading toward recession, as the eurozone purchasing managers’ index — a key economic indicator — plunged to its lowest level in more than two years. The figures helped push the euro to a new 20-year low, as Europe battles rising inflation and surging energy costs.

 

CANADA-GERMANY DEAL: Ottawa and Berlin signed the Canada-Germany Hydrogen Alliance on Tuesday, setting a goal to begin transatlantic deliveries in 2025. More from AP.

 

MERKEL AWARDED: A jury on Tuesday awarded former German Chancellor Angela Merkel the Félix Houphouët-Boigny-UNESCO Peace Prize for her decision in 2015 to welcome more than 1.2 million refugees to Germany. Here’s the press release.

 

CLIMATE WAKE-UP CALL: Almost half the EU is under a drought alert, according to a report by EU scientists released Tuesday. The stark picture of the reality of climate change has particularly worrisome implications for Spain and Portugal, with parts of the Iberian Peninsula predicted to remain hot and dry until November, according to the report from the Joint Research Centre. But as our colleague Karl Mathiesen reports, there could be some respite as weather returns to “close to normal” later this fall.