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Two ways to bring down a PM: Boris Johnson’s
rebels see opportunities
Johnson was defiant in Rwanda after his byelection
disasters, but at home there was renewed Tory anger
Rowena
Mason, Heather Stewart and Rajeev Syal in Kigali
Fri 24 Jun
2022 18.38 BST
While Boris
Johnson was in Rwanda, having an early-morning swim in the luxurious pool of
the conference hotel, his Tory critics were already planning another go at
ousting him.
The
backbench plotters had previously been despondent about the prospects of
kicking Johnson out after he narrowly won a confidence vote of his MPs and the
cabinet rallied round him.
But they
have been given fresh hope of removing him in the coming weeks because of
renewed anger and incredulity among Tory MPs about the disastrous byelection
results, as well as the scandal over attempts to get a government job for his
then girlfriend and now wife, Carrie Johnson. “It’ll be a random walk, but
we’ll get there erelong,” said one former cabinet minister cheerfully.
Johnson’s
No 10 aides insist he still has scope to turn things around by being “humble”
and accepting that more needs to change while not “over-panicking” about
midterm results. However, there was evidence on Friday that even some of
Johnson’s erstwhile backers believe his time may soon be up. “It wouldn’t do
him any harm if he wanted to look in the mirror. He needs to ask himself: have
I got the stomach for this, and am I going to be able to do this. Is it me?”
said one Tory MP and grandee who has been supportive of the prime minister up
until now.
Tory
critics of Johnson had been looking at the autumn as the next moment when he
may be in danger, the point when the privileges committee reports on whether he
lied to parliament and therefore broke the ministerial code. However, the
rebels now believe there may now be two other routes in the short term. The
first, that many are holding out hope for, is a cabinet or senior ministerial
walkout, after Oliver Dowden resigned as chair of the Conservatives with a hint
that others should realise the party could not “carry on with business as
usual”.
Steve
Baker, the MP for Wycombe in Buckinghamshire, and a leading Eurosceptic, told
the Guardian: “Like so many backbench MPs, I am looking to the cabinet for
leadership, especially from those who aspire to be seen to provide it.”
Many MPs
have their eye on Penny Mordaunt, a senior minister and potential leadership
candidate, as a possibility for the first to go because she has been more
critical than many over the Partygate scandal. Others believe Michael Gove
could be a contender to walk, having showed no compunction about turning on
Johnson previously when he withdrew from his leadership campaign in 2016.
Certainly, some in No 10 are suspicious about Gove, his motives and allies,
with one senior Downing Street aide believing he cannot be trusted and is “on
manoeuvres”. Nadhim Zahawi, the education secretary, also tweeted a warning
shot that the government needed to focus more on delivery, with no mention of
support for the prime minister. “The voters have spoken, and we need to
listen,” Zahawi said.
A
resignation by the chancellor, Rishi Sunak, the foreign secretary, Liz Truss,
or the deputy prime minister, Dominic Raab, would be very likely to prove the
end for Johnson, one Tory MP said. But Sunak expressed his support for Johnson
on Friday, while Raab went on media rounds to support him earlier in the week and
Truss was by his side in Kigali. Others in the cabinet are also bullish about
Johnson’s chances of revival, with one cabinet minister saying that any big
national event, such as a twist in the pandemic or death of the Queen, could
instantly change the political landscape before the election.
“The
general view is that Dowden jumped before he was pushed but it does crystallise
it that no other cabinet minister resigned over the confidence vote,” another
Tory MP and former cabinet minister said. “Anyone with [guts] would walk and
make themselves instantly into the favourite to take over. I’m both surprised
and disappointed that no one has so far.”
The other
possible route is a technical one: backbench MPs are attempting to seize
control of the 1922 Committee, which makes the rules on how soon another
confidence vote can be held. The whole executive committee of 18 was up for
re-election in mid-July, said its chair, Sir Graham Brady, with both officer
and executive positions up for grabs. Tory whips are already organising to try
to get pro-Johnson MPs on to that committee.
Andrew
Bridgen, one of the prime minister’s most persistent critics, said he would be
putting himself forward for election on a specific platform of changing the
rules, saying the poll could be regarded as a “stalking horse” effort to change
the prime minister.
“The 1922
is a vote of the party. If the places are filled with people who are pro-rule
change, a sensible person in No 10 might think the game is up,” he told the
Guardian.
According
to those with Johnson in Rwanda, there is no hint he is thinking along these
lines. Speaking at a press conference in Kigali, the prime minister refused to
accept that his behaviour had anything to do with the byelection losses in
Wakefield, and Tiverton and Honiton.
“I
genuinely, genuinely don’t think the way forward in British politics is to
focus on issues of personalities whether they are mine or others … No doubt
people will continue to beat me up and say this or that and attack me. That’s
fine. That’s quite right. That’s the job of politicians,” he said.
“In the
end, voters, journalists, they have no one else to make their complaints to. I
have to take that but I also have to get on with delivering for the people of
this country.”
Taking an
approach of defiance, he and aides decided not to change the planned schedule
of meetings with Prince Charles and attendance at the opening ceremony of the
Commonwealth heads of government meeting (Chogm).
“It would
have looked panicky and we have big and important decisions at Chogm and at the
G7 and Nato – not least addressing the issue of Ukraine. We have to address the
bigger issues,” an insider said.
However,
there is also a risk the prime minister looks remote from how the country and
his party are feeling, with him scheduled to be away for another week at the G7
and Nato summits.
Geoffrey
Clifton-Brown, the treasurer of the 1922 Committee, suggested to broadcasters
that Johnson should take the “opportunity to come home and make his argument”,
and warned: “A lot of private conversations will take place next week.”
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