London Playbook: Inflation nation — Starmer drama — Lynch mob

 

London Playbook: Inflation nation — Starmer drama — Lynch mob

BY ANNABELLE DICKSON

June 22, 2022 8:06 am

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/inflation-nation-starmer-drama-lynch-mob/

 

POLITICO London Playbook

By ANNABELLE DICKSON

 

LOBBY SCOOP: Sun on Sunday stalwart Ryan Sabey is getting his Saturdays back and moving over to be deputy political editor of the Sun. He replaces Kate Ferguson, who was unveiled as the Sun on Sunday’s new political editor earlier this week. Sabey has been at the Sun since 2009, starting as a general news reporter and moving over to Westminster in 2015.

 

There’s more: In other lobby reshuffle news, PoliticsHome has signed the Yorkshire Post’s Caitlin Doherty as a political reporter. She starts the new gig in July. Congratulations all round.

 

Good Wednesday morning. This is Annabelle Dickson. Eleni Courea will be in the driving seat for the rest of the week, so do send tips her way.

 

DRIVING THE DAY

INFLATION NATION: Another day of economic soul searching beckons with inflation figures for May just published. It doesn’t make happy reading, with the Consumer Prices Index rising by 9.1 percent in the 12 months to May, up from 9 percent in April. The stats will sets the stage for another day of wrangling over the rights and wrongs of wage restraint, pension hikes and industrial action, with more strike threats potentially on the horizon.

 

**A message from Lloyds Banking Group:  As part of our focus on helping Britain prosper, we are committed to supporting first-time buyers to realise the dream of homeownership. Last year, we lent £16 billion to over 80,000 first-time buyers. Find out more.**

 

Right on cue: Boris Johnson is up at PMQs at noon, and we can expect plenty of party-political broadcasting from all sides of the House of Commons on the final day of campaigning before the long-anticipated Tiverton and Honiton and Wakefield by-elections tomorrow. It’s a fair bet the prime minister will do all he can to mention the rail strikes, not least because, as one Tory source pointed out to Playbook, the issue has given his party a rare unity boost. But before that, there’s a commute to navigate.

 

Transport latest: Things will be far from normal on the rail network today. There will be no Tube lines running in London before 8 a.m. today and Transport for London has advised people to avoid using the service until mid-morning. Only around 60 percent of the normal 20,000 weekday services are operating today. God speed to anyone on the move. Updates here.

 

Keep on talking: Frustrated commuters will be closely watching today’s talks between the RMT union and Network Rail, although the BBC reckons that even if an agreement is reached, it is unlikely to avert tomorrow’s planned strikes. If successful, Saturday’s industrial action could be halted though.

 

Let’s talk figures: There are various accounts of the state of play. The FT reckons Network Rail is set to offer the RMT a 3 percent pay increase, or more, if savings can be made through modernization, with train operating companies set to offer a similar deal. ITV’s Anushka Asthana hears a pay offer of 4 percent has been mentioned in return for modernization. It’s a long way from the 7-8 percent the RMT leadership has been pushing for.

 

Long-haul: In the meantime, the government has been making it clear it is ready for a drawn-out dispute, and talking tough on pay restraint. In a headline that will fill the struggling commuter with horror, the Times says the prime minister is ready for the rail strike stalemate to last for months, after he told his Cabinet yesterday that Britain must be prepared to “stay the course.” Government sources tell the Sun’s Harry Cole the pay offer for the RMT could hit 6 percent, prompting fears more sectors will walk out if the rail strikes pay off.

 

It’s the economy, stupid: The Times quotes a Johnson ally who insists the prime minister’s defiance was based on “cold, hard economic reality” rather than ideology. “He’s not doing this for the sake of it,” the source said. “The impact cumulatively on the economy would be devastating.”

 

Court of public option: On the question of who is winning the battle for hearts and minds, the polls are mixed. There was a poll to suit every narrative out last night. YouGov’s survey suggested less than four in 10 people are supportive of the strike, and almost half are opposed. A Savanta ComRes poll meanwhile found 58 percent of the public believed the rail strike was justified. Opinium’s poll for Talk TV found the nation was pretty well divided over the strikes, with 41 percent in support and 42 percent opposing industrial action.

 

Wedge politics: Opinium’s head of political polling Chris Curtis concludes the strikes might not be the wedge issue the Tories think it is. Remember the Tories have been keen to try to associate Labour with the strikes, and leader Keir Starmer has been resisting (more on that below). Only one in four of those polled by Opinium think Labour has been too supportive, and four in 10 don’t think it would make a difference if Labour was in government.

 

Lynch mob: Playbook is most looking forward to polling companies doing approval ratings for top striker Mick Lynch, whose TV interviews are quickly becoming cult viewing in political circles, even among some Tories. His greatest hits include his withering “I don’t know who you are” to Labour Shadow Minister Jenny Chapman, his heckling of Tory Minister Chris Philp; accusing Good Morning Britain’s Richard Madeley of coming up with “remarkable twaddle, and mocking Kay Burley’s picket line of questioning on Sky. His performances have won him fans, including from the esteemed actor Hugh Laurie.

 

Popcorn: ITV’s Robert Peston will be Lynch’s next victim. The RMT boss will be on the Peston show this evening.

 

Back catalogue: For those coming to Lynch late, his chat with the BBC’s Nick Robinson on the Political Thinking podcast a few weeks ago is well worth a listen.

 

Next up: General Secretary of the National Education Union Mary Bousted told last night’s Talk TV News Desk she is waiting for today’s inflation figures before she pens a letter to Education Secretary Nadhim Zahawi asking for a pay rise which matches inflation. She is expected to send her letter around 9 a.m. this morning. There is still time for negotiation, with Bousted indicating ballot action wouldn’t come before October. The Mirror has a write up of her comments.

 

Hitting back: The Sun splashes on the potential teacher walkout, with punchy quotes from Education Secretary Nadhim Zahawi warning teachers risk wrecking kids’ recovery from the COVID pandemic if their unions vote to strike. Playbook can imagine how that one is going to go down in NEU HQ.

 

Not much help: If we are in for the long haul, we shouldn’t get too excited about grand announcements about new legislation to minimize disruption. A Whitehall source admits to the i’s Arj Singh, Richard Vaughan and Hugo Gye that plans to allow agency workers to replace striking staff on walkout days would do little to solve the absence of skilled drivers and signallers who are critical to the running of the railways, and an industry source tells them plans for minimum service levels on the railways may be “unworkable.”

 

Incoming: On agency worker changes, the plan is for Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng to bring forward a statutory instrument repealing a regulation from 1973 tomorrow. But the i paper hears laws for minimum service levels are unlikely to be introduced before the summer recess, and would take around six months to get through parliament.

 

Coming even sooner: Deputy Prime Minister Dominic Raab will publish his new British Bill of Rights today, and he has the morning media round to sell it. He has put himself on a collision course with civil liberties and human rights groups after announcing plans to stop interim measures from the European Court of Human Rights binding U.K. courts. The long-promised draft law, which is being published after ECHR intervention temporarily halted a controversial U.K. deportation flight to Rwanda, would replace the Human Rights Act passed by the last Labour government. POLITICO’s Cristina Gallardo has the details.

 

Row coming: The Guardian splashes on criticisms of the move, quoting campaigners and leading lawyers saying the government is systematically eroding people’s rights in an attempt to make itself “untouchable” by the courts. Liberty’s Martha Spurrier gives a flavor of some of the arguments it will make against against Raab’s plan.

 

Go home, you’re drunk: On Newsnight last night Shadow Attorney General Emily Thornberry did not hold back, accusing the government of “just behaving like some sort of drunk when the pubs are throwing out, and they’re in the carpark, and they’re rolling around and they’re going ‘fight me, fight me.'” She warned the government it couldn’t “just choose the bits you like and the bits you don’t” when it came to the law.

 

Nice timing: The prime minister sets off for the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in Rwanda this evening, where the plans will no doubt come up.

 

Double defeat? His departure from U.K. shores is conveniently timed with most Tories bracing for a double by-election defeat tomorrow. Those Playbook spoke to last night feel pretty gloomy about their prospects in Devon and West Yorkshire.

 

Glasto glamor: The people of Tiverton will be as glad when the whole thing is over as Conservative MPs by the sounds of it. More in Common’s Luke Tryl did a focus group in the Devon town of Tiverton last night. One participant told him they were going to vote for the party that has sent them the least junk mail in the post. Another participant announced: “I would vote Liberal Democrat but I can’t because I’m going to Glastonbury.” That, of course, is if they can actually get there.

 

LABOUR LAND

STARMER DRAMA: Labour leader Keir Starmer is not having the best of weeks either after a rebel crew of frontbenchers disobeyed his orders to stay away from RMT picket lines yesterday. Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar visited a picket line in Edinburgh and even Starmer’s deputy Angela Rayner voiced her support for the strikers and said workers had “no choice” but to take industrial action.

 

Didn’t get the message: Starmer’s shadow rail minister, Tan Dhesi, told Talk TV he didn’t get the email.

 

In numbers: Sky’s Tom Larkin has compiled another of his handy spreadsheets of rebels, with details of who said what and where. Public service journalism in action.

 

Will there be consequences:? Not yet. The Labour hierarchy is waiting until the strike is over before it acts, with the shadow chief whip tasked with deciding on exactly how to discipline the ranks. Starmer allies tell the Guardian he is not minded to be lenient. Some of his colleagues are pretty cross, with MPs from different wings of the party telling Heather Stewart it was “imbecilic,” “pointless” and “dumb.”

 

TODAY IN WESTMINSTER

HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 11.30 a.m. with Northern Ireland questions, followed by PMQs at noon … Any UQs or statements will be followed by the remaining stages of the Social Security (Additional Payments) Bill.

 

HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 3 p.m. with questions on carers, when the Ocean Surveillance Ship and National Flagship will be built and the conditions of private renters … The main business will be day five of the Schools Bill’s committee stage.

 

Committee corridor: Home Office Permanent Secretary Matthew Rycroft faces a grilling from the home affairs committee (10 a.m.) … As does Welsh Secretary Simon Hart at the same time over at the Welsh affairs committee (10 a.m.) … and MoD Permanent Secretary David Williams at the public accounts committee (1.30 p.m.) … Former Cabinet Ministers David Gauke, Ken Clarke and Jack Straw are giving evidence on the role of lord chancellor at the Lords constitution committee (10.15 a.m.) … The Treasury committee will scrutinize the effectiveness of the U.K.’s sanctions regime (2.15 p.m.) … and the women and equalities committee has a session on the impact of pornography on violence toward women and girls, with Tech Minister Chris Philp and Safeguarding Minister Rachel Maclean (2.30 p.m.). Full list here.

 

What Labour would like to be talking about: The DWP has admitted in an answer to Labour’s Lisa Nandy that most people won’t benefit from government plans to let people on housing benefit put welfare payments toward the cost of a mortgage. In answer to the written parly Q from the shadow leveling up secretary, DWP Minister David Rutley said “it is likely most will not be in a position to take up the new policy.”

 

MONKEYPOX LATEST: The government is expanding its vaccination campaign against monkeypox to all high-risk gay and bisexual men, with more than a thousand cases of the virus across Europe. Helen Collis has more for POLITICO Health Pros.

 

And in other health news: Moderna will build a new vaccine research-and-development center and large manufacturing facility later this year, in the first vaccine task force deal for some time. The government said the deal will provide U.K. patients with “guaranteed access” to the COVID vaccine and give scientists the ability to produce jabs targeting other illnesses like the flu. More here.

 

COME TO COP PM: A cross-party group of MPs — including Theresa Villiers, a former environment secretary — have urged the PM to attend the COP15 biodiversity summit later this year, and lead efforts to reverse losses of biodiversity by 2030. COP15 will take place in December in Montreal.

 

TODAY, NOT IN NORTHERN IRELAND: NI Secretary Brandon Lewis will open a three-day conference hosted by Wilton Park and the NIO with a commitment for extra support for greater integration in Northern Ireland through education. Lewis will indicate that the government is preparing a program to support this initiative in his opening remarks.

 

LET’S TALK ABOUT BREXIT: Over at the Resolution Foundation, researchers will be presenting a report suggesting Brexit has damaged Britain’s competitiveness, and will make it poorer in the decade ahead. The event kicks off at 9.30 a.m. The Guardian has a write-up.

 

CARRIE-ING ON: Days after the Times dropped its story claiming the PM’s wife Carrie Johnson had been offered the role of chief-of-staff to Boris Johnson while he was foreign secretary, at a time when they were in a relationship, the Telegraph carries new allegations. The paper says the Cabinet Secretary Simon Case attempted to secure Carrie Johnson a role with the Royal Foundation that manages Prince William’s charity work, but his overtures were rejected amid concerns it would be inappropriate for the prime minister’s fiancée to work with the royals. A No. 10 spokesperson said: “The Prime Minister has never recommended Mrs Johnson for a government role or one as part of the Earth Shot Prize.”

 

About that Times story: The New European’s Tim Walker has the lowdown on what he heard went on at the Times last week. Times columnist David Aaronovitch reckons it is a credible explanation

 

UKRAINE UPDATE: Russian oil tycoon-turned-dissident Mikhail Khodorkovsky has warned in an interview with POLITICO’s Victor Jack and David Herszenhorn that Western leaders were committing a massive blunder by hurting their own economies with energy sanctions instead of shipping more weapons to Ukraine. Meanwhile, Luhansk governor Serhiy Hadai said Ukrainian troops now hold just one factory in the embattled eastern city of Severodonetsk.

 

Talking Turkey: Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is in Turkey today with discussions about getting grain out of Ukraine at the top of her agenda. No breakthrough is expected.

 

Now read this: POLITICO’s Sarah Anne Aarup and Cristina Gallardo lay out which tricks Russia is likely to start pulling to evade sanctions.

 

Now watch this: NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg will be interviewed live by POLITICO’s Lili Bayer this afternoon — sign up to watch here from 3.30 p.m. You can also submit questions via the Q&A system.

 

STATE OF THE UNION

SNP SLEAZE: Ian Blackford has finally broken his silence on the SNP’s harassment scandal, which in the past week has seen his party’s disciplinary procedures and his own leadership called into question. The SNP Westminster leader said he would initiate an external review of the party’s processes and the support available to staff, in the wake of criticism over the party’s reaction to Patrick Grady’s two-day parliament ban for harassment and subsequent leaked audio — which you can catch up on here via the BBC. In Blackford’s first reference to Grady’s victim, a young SNP staffer who still works for the party, he said: “Staff have a right to feel fully supported when a complaint is made. I regret that the complainant does not feel that this is the case.”

 

Compare and contrast … Blackford’s language on the victim with that of his colleague Amy Callaghan, who apologized on Monday after she too was heard offering support to Grady in the leaked audio. Callaghan explicitly apologized for what she said in the leaked tape and talked of a complainant “who has been let down this week by my words and by my party.” The staff member described Blackford’s apology as a “publicity stunt” and called for him to quit as Westminster leader — see his full statement via the Record here.

 

There’s more I: A sexual misconduct complaint against SNP MP Patricia Gibson has not been upheld after an appeal, the Record reported yesterday. The complainant is the same male SNP staff member who made a complaint against Grady. John Stevens has more detail in today’s Mail.

 

There’s more II: Back up in Holyrood, the SNP Scottish government is refusing to reveal the outcome of complaints against ministers such as the former Environment Secretary Fergus Ewing, who was accused of bullying in 2019. The government said such disclosures are “not in [the] public interest.” The Scotsman’s Conor Matchett got the story.

 

There’s more III: The Times’ Kieran Andrews playfully reports that the SNP Westminster group’s summer social has been canceled at short notice. What a shame.

 

COMING ATTRACTION: First Minister Nicola Sturgeon — currently in Italy, as per Guido — will next Tuesday set out in detail how she plans to hold a second independence referendum, which nationalists have penciled in for October next year.

 

**A message from Lloyds Banking Group: We are committed to helping Britain prosper. As part of that commitment, we’re focusing on getting more first-time buyers onto the housing ladder and supporting the wider housing market. Last year, we helped 80,000 first-time buyers, lending £16 billion. We’re backing the social housing sector, delivering £3.4 billion of new funding last year, of which £2.4 billion is ESG-linked financing, as well as assessing the energy retrofit requirements of around 240,000 social homes owned and managed by our customers. And, we’re helping to make homes in the future more energy efficient, supporting the creation of national sustainability standards for housebuilding finance through becoming a member of the NextGeneration Executive Committee. Find out more.**