Emmanuel Macron’s coalition level with new
leftwing group in French elections
President’s Ensemble alliance is projected to take
25.2% of the vote with Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s Nupes slightly ahead on 25.6%
Angelique
Chrisafis in Paris
@achrisafis
Sun 12 Jun
2022 20.03 BST
Emmanuel
Macron’s centrist grouping was neck and neck with a new leftwing alliance led
by the hard-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the vote share of the first round of
parliamentary elections, according to early projections.
A frantic
final week of campaigning will begin on Monday before the second round, as
Macron’s centrists still hope to edge ahead but face uncertainty over whether
they can win a crucial majority of seats in parliament.
A historic
alliance of parties on the left, led by Mélenchon’s France Unbowed party and
including the Socialists and the Greens, was slightly ahead on 25.6% – a strong
showing which presents a challenge to Macron. The president’s centrist
alliance, Ensemble (Together), was projected to take 25.2% of the vote,
according to estimations by Ipsos-Sopra Steria for France Télévisions.
Turnout on
Sunday was estimated to have hit a record low of about 47%, according to
polling firm projections, after candidates described the mood among voters as
angry and disillusioned at the political class. Olivia Grégoire, the government
spokesperson, said the low turnout was the “key issue”.
Macron, who
was re-elected president in April against the far-right’s Marine Le Pen, needs
a majority for his centrist grouping in the national assembly in order to have
a free hand for his proposals to cut taxes and make changes to the welfare
system.
The
parliamentary results will set the balance of power for Macron’s second term,
defining his capacity to deliver domestic policies such as raising the
retirement age and overhauling the benefits system.
Mélenchon’s
alliance – known as the Nupes, or the New Popular Ecological and Social Union –
is seeking to increase its seats and reduce the number of Macron’s centrists.
The coalition’s platform includes a significant minimum wage increase, lowering
the retirement age to 60 and a freeze in basic food and energy prices to
address the cost of living crisis.
France’s
constituency-based, first-past-the-post voting system for parliament means that
the exact number of seats for each grouping remains hard to predict. The shape
of the new parliament will become clear only after the second round on 19 June.
Based on
early estimations, Ispos predicted Macron’s centrist alliance would win the
greatest share of the 577-seat parliament – taking between 255 and 295 seats.
This suggested there was a chance they could fall short of an absolute
majority, which requires 289 seats.
If Macron’s
party and his allies fail to secure a majority, it would be a setback for the
president and could prompt messy bill-by-bill deals with rightwing parties in
parliament or an unwanted cabinet reshuffle.
The left
alliance could take between 150 and 190 seats, according to Ipsos.
Macron and
ministers had stepped up campaigning this week, warning Mélenchon was dangerous
and an extremist who would kill the European Union, “ally with Russia” and add
to “world disorder”.
Le Pen’s
far-right National Rally party, which won eight seats in 2017, hopes this time
to get at least 15 seats, allowing it to form a parliamentary group and gain
greater visibility at the national assembly. Ipsos suggested the party could
take up to 45 seats. Despite Le Pen coming second in the presidential election
with a historic high of 41%, the first-past-the-post voting system for
parliament has historically proved difficult for her party in legislative
elections.
Le Pen,
from the stronghold of Hénin-Beaumont, in northern France, called on her voters
to turn out for her party against what she called Macron’s “brutal” style of
politics. She said France was suffering, citing the cost of living crisis as
well as the treatment of English fans at the Champions League final in Paris,
seen as damaging France’s image abroad.
Le Pen’s
new rival on the far right, the former TV pundit Éric Zemmour, was eliminated
in the first round after standing in a constituency around Saint-Tropez in
southern France.
The first
weeks of the new government have been tense in the run-up to the parliamentary
elections, with hospital strikes and concerns about the cost of living, and
Macron has been accused by Ukraine of being too accommodating to Russia.
Macron’s
new disabilities minister, Damien Abad, has faced two rape accusations – which
he has denied – but which prompted street demonstrations over women’s rights,
while the new prime minister, Élisabeth Borne, has yet to make an impact.
Borne, who
is running for the first time in a Normandy seat, was well-placed for the
second round run-off.
Jean-Michel
Blanquer, Macron’s former education minister, was eliminated in the first round
in the Loiret.
Macron has
made it clear that serving ministers who are running for election will have to
step down if they lose.
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