Accelerated Candidacy?
Ukraine's Possible EU Accession Not Universally
Welcome
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy wants his
country to become an EU member as rapidly as possible. But no all countries in
the bloc are supportive of the idea. And potential members in the Balkans that
have been waiting for years for the privilege are losing their patience.
By Markus
Becker, Martin Knobbe, Walter Mayr, Alexander Sarovic und Severin Weiland
17.06.2022, 17.45 Uhr
German
Chancellor Olaf Scholz rolled into the courtyard of Kyiv’s Mariinskyi Palace in
a black Toyota SUV, right after Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and closely
followed by French President Emmanuel Macron. They were greeted at the entrance
by a bleary-eyed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, wearing his trademark
olive green T-shirt as the world has come to know him in recent months.
A
handshake, a brief exchange: Zelenskyy spoke and Scholz nodded. The chancellor
was carrying his worn briefcase, which he set down on the ground while greeting
the Ukrainian leader, and a soldier immediately picked it up for him. For the
group photo, Macron, Zelenskyy, Draghi and Romanian President Klaus Iohannis,
who was also in attendance, let their arms fall to their sides. Only Scholz
kept his hands folded in front of his belly, giving the appearance of unease.
There is
indeed a lot at stake. Just five days after the Russian invasion of Ukraine,
Zelenskyy made it abundantly clear what he expected from the EU. "We are
fighting also to be equal members of Europe," he told the European
Parliament via video link on March 1, his face looking down at the
representatives from screens set up in the Brussels plenary hall. "So do
prove that you are with us. Do prove that you will not let us go. Do prove that
you indeed are Europeans." The parliamentarians and European Commission
President Ursula von der Leyen gave him a standing ovation.
DER SPIEGEL
25/2022
The article
you are reading originally appeared in German in issue 25/2022 (June 17th,
2022) of DER SPIEGEL.
On
Thursday, Zelenskyy came one step closer to his goal of quickly leading his
country into the European Union. The three largest economic powers in the bloc
assured him that they supported Ukrainian accession.
It was the
primary message from this meeting, one delivered by all four visitors at the
ensuing press conference held in the bucolic park attached to the presidential
palace. "Today is an historic day for Europe," intoned Draghi. EU
candidacy is the "key to the establishment of a strong and lasting
protective shield," said Iohannis. "The four of us are in favor of
immediate candidate status for Ukraine," Macron agreed. And Scholz said:
"Ukraine belongs to the European family," even as he remained
reticent on the issue of weapons.
The
Ukrainian president emphasized his gratitude, saying he was "very
satisfied." But it was likely clear to him that his guests didn’t mention
what is perhaps the most important aspect of the road to the EU: the conditions
that Brussels will potentially link to candidate status. Those conditions, though,
will be decisive in determining whether Ukraine will become a candidate soon,
or only at some point in the distant future. Scholz hinted at such an
eventuality when he spoke of an EU path "with plenty of
prerequisites."
The trip to
Kyiv gave the leaders an opportunity to smooth over a number of splits and
disagreements, in full knowledge of just how divided Europe really is on the
issue. Countries like Portugal, Spain, the Netherlands and Denmark have
significant reservations when it comes to rapidly accepting Ukraine into the
EU. For Poland and the Baltic countries, by contrast, the process couldn't go
fast enough. As such, Germany, Italy and France must play the role of mediator,
a reality the leaders discussed and agreed on during their train trip from
Poland to Kyiv, sitting together in a lounge car for more than two hours,
speaking at length and, it is said, enjoying more than a little wine. A train
journey can also bring people together.
But the
harmony isn’t likely to last long. Zelenskyy’s demand for rapid EU accession
plunges the bloc into a dilemma. An accelerated acceptance procedure for
Ukraine could only work if the EU were to ignore a long list of its own rules,
which is considered a virtual impossibility. Furthermore, such a move would almost
certainly alienate countries in the Western Balkans that have been waiting in
vain for EU membership for years.
However,
were Brussels to slam the door on Ukraine right in the middle of the war, it
would be akin to a declaration of geopolitical bankruptcy of the EU.
As such, it
is considered likely that EU heads of state and government, at their summit in
Brussels late next week, will open the door to candidate status for Ukraine,
Moldavia and Georgia, but will probably link the process to strict conditions.
Ultimately, in fact, the visit of Scholz, Macron and Draghi to Kyiv did little
to clarify the EU’s position, particularly since the trio have had trouble
agreeing on the details – not to mention the other 24 EU member states.
Of the three,
Macron is considered to be the greatest skeptic. To the displeasure of the
government in Kyiv, Macron said recently that Russian President Vladimir Putin
should not be overly humiliated and that the Ukrainians will have to negotiate
with him at some point in the future. In a Europe Day speech in the European
Parliament, Macron said that Ukraine "is already today a member of the
heart of our Europe," only to then say that "the process allowing
them to join would take several years – in truth, probably several
decades."
Draghi,
meanwhile, is the trio's most enthusiastic supporter of providing Ukraine with
a clear path to accession. Indeed, EU diplomats now believe that Italy has
joined the camp of Poland and the Baltic countries, which have been most
vehement in demanding that Ukraine be granted candidate status.
And Scholz?
He’s somewhere in the middle, as could be seen in Kyiv, where the German
chancellor couldn’t resist reminding Ukraine of the rules: "For accession
to the European Union, there are clear criteria that all candidates must
fulfill," he recited. He doesn’t believe that accelerated proceedings are
possible.
Ukraine,
though, believes it has earned unconditional candidate status. On Thursday,
Zelenskyy said that his country has "earned that right." The human
rights and democracy activist Oleksandra Matviichuk agrees. "In this war,
Ukraine is fighting on the side of freedom against authoritarianism, and it is
fighting for Europe." As such, she says, the EU has no choice but to
support Kyiv by granting it candidate status. "Anything else would be a
victory for Putin." Furthermore, she says, the status is extremely
important for the country’s democratic development.
Zelenskyy’s
demands have not been universally popular. The Ukrainian president is "the
Justin Bieber of international politics, a popstar, a TV series hero,"
says a diplomat from a country in Western Europe. "We are all extras in a
series that he wrote himself." Germany, in particular, the diplomat
continues, runs the risk of one day being accused by Zelenskyy of being
responsible for Ukraine’s defeat in the war.
In Berlin,
meanwhile, officials are trying to play down the debate surrounding Ukraine’s
EU ambitions. "Candidate status is primarily a political-psychological
term that has no legal dimension," say sources close to the government.
That may be
true in a formal sense, but the EU itself has lent significant meaning to the
term by presenting candidate status over the years as a reward for reforms –
without ever being particularly precise about when the reward will be bestowed.
It is a
principle perhaps best illustrated by the example of North Macedonia. The
country submitted its application for membership in the EU fully 18 years ago,
back when it was still called Macedonia. First, Greece demanded that the
country of 2 million change its name to North Macedonia, and now it is facing
hurdles placed in its path by the Netherlands and Bulgaria. The country
fulfills all accession requirements to a T and has been hoping for almost an
entire generation for movement on its path to the EU – and now must watch from
the sidelines as it is passed by a Ukraine that is leveraging its status as a
war victim.
Other
Balkan countries have had experiences similar to that of North Macedonia.
Montenegro and Serbia each had to wait two years after receiving candidate status
for accession negotiations to begin. Albania is still waiting. And neither
Kosovo nor Bosnia and Herzegovina are even candidates yet. "The prospects
of the Balkan countries are sometimes brighter, sometimes dimmer," says
one EU diplomat. "Right now, it is completely open."
The fact
that the Ukrainian application was processed within just a few months triggered
no small amount of anger in the Balkans. "It is an impropriety, if not an
obscenity, how the EU is showering its attentions on the new wunderkind
Ukraine," says a source close to Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić. Since
the expansion promise delivered in Thessaloniki in 2003, there have been
"numerous vicious fouls" committed against the Balkan countries, the
source says.
The most
recent proposal from Macron, that of establishing a "European political
community" as an additional step short of full EU membership, apparently
hasn’t improved the mood. Political scientist Vedran Džihić says the
frustration extends across the Western Balkans. "People in North Macedonia
and Albania have grown more and more tired. Not to mention Bosnia and
Herzegovina, where faith in an EU future has long since been buried." It
is a situation that provides China with an opportunity to establish a foothold
in Europe, and Beijing has already established close cooperation with Serbia.
Disappointment
with the EU has also manifested itself in the region in the form of pro-Russian
solidarity. That support, says Marko Trosanovski, president of the Skopje-based
think tank Institute for Democracy Societas Civilis, "is largely a result
of the frustration over the European expansion process."
As such,
the Western Balkans more likely serves as a warning for Zelenskyy. He doesn’t
want to join the EU at some point in the future, but as rapidly as possible.
And he wants that path to be opened to his country without reservation.
But it is
doubtful that he will get what he wants. When Commission President Ursula von
der Leyen recently met with Zelenskyy in Kyiv, conditions relating to Ukraine’s
potential candidacy status were a primary focus. For the Ukrainians, an offer
of the kind given to Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2019 would be the worst of all
worlds. The Commission handed the country a list of no fewer than 14 reforms
that it must first implement – which still haven’t been fulfilled.
As such,
Zelenskyy has taken an aggressive approach when it comes to doubts about his
country’s EU-readiness. Questions about Ukraine’s anti-corruption effort, a
statement recently said, were based on "incomplete information about the
situation in our country." The Ukrainian anti-corruption infrastructure,
the statement claimed, was even superior to that in many EU member states.
Furthermore, Ukrainian steps in support of the rule of law were taken "for
us in Ukraine" and "were in no way connected" to the country’s
EU aspirations.
That
approach, though, could provide ammunition to those who want to block Ukraine
from being granted candidate status. On the one hand, a functioning system
rooted in the rule of law is among the most important criteria for EU
accession. On the other, the situation in Ukraine is far less rosy than
Zelenskyy claims.
In the
global Corruption Perceptions Index compiled by Transparency International, the
most recent version of which was released just before the Russian invasion,
Ukraine is in 122nd place, between Niger and Zambia and not far ahead of
Russia. "Grand corruption and state capture are still widespread in
Ukraine," wrote the European Court of Auditors in a 2021 special report.
Tens of billions of euros are lost annually as a result of corruption, the
report noted, while 20 years of reform assistance from the EU has been ineffective.
The Court of Auditors was also critical of the Commission, writing that it has
frequently interpreted the situation in Ukraine "too loosely," which
has led to "over-positive assessments."
The
Commission is again being pretty positive this time around. Even at Zelenskyy’s
very first European Parliament appearance on March 1, Commission President von
der Leyen said that there could be no doubt "that a people that stands up
so bravely for our European values belongs in our European family." It
was, she emphasized, "a moment of truth for Europe." The tone had
been set.
The
Commission has since said that Ukraine already fulfills most of the
"Acquis," the roughly 100,000 pages of legal requirements EU members
must adhere to. And Zelenskyy’s chances of achieving the rest, Brussels says,
aren’t bad.
The
Zelenskyy government’s EU ambitions don’t just enjoy significant support from
the Ukrainian population. Much of the world is also interested in investing in
the reconstruction of the country once Ukrainians complete the necessary
reforms and successfully defend their independence.
And that,
too, could help explain von der Leyen’s enthusiasm. She even ensured that
Ukraine had significant support from Brussels when it came to filling out the
application for accession to the EU. That assistance meant that Kyiv was able
to complete the 1,000-page catalog of questions the record time of less than
one month.
Even before
the Commission presented its assessment of the membership applications of
Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia this week, it had already been considered a
certainty that it would endorse candidate status for all three countries, but
with strict conditions attached. That will likely mean that the three countries
will achieve official candidate status at different times. The final decision
on candidate status, after all, is made by the member states. The Commission's
recommendation, sources said, would be worded in such a way that EU leaders
would still have wiggle room to decide at the summit in Brussels at the end of
next week exactly how they want to proceed.
It is by no
means certain how things will turn out at the summit, because the concerns are
as numerous as they are varied, making the situation difficult to predict. In
the Netherlands and France, but also in Berlin, there are fears that the EU –
which can only make unanimous decisions in areas such as foreign, security and
financial policy – would ultimately become paralyzed if it were to accept
Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and, possibly, the six Western Balkan countries that
have been seeking membership for years. "The EU needs to reform before
several new member states can be admitted," says one diplomat.
A number of
other countries consider corruption and a weak rule of law in Ukraine to be
significant problems. They see Hungary and Poland as cautionary examples of how
even countries that have fully gone through the complex accession process can
drift toward autocracy.
Meanwhile,
some southern European countries, especially Portugal, fear financial losses.
Southern European countries already feel disadvantaged compared to Eastern
Europe in the distribution of funds, and the admission of half a dozen new
members would divert even more EU funds to the east. In a recent interview,
Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa said that granting candidate status
wouldn’t solve any of Ukraine’s pressing problems and could instead raise
"false expectations."
Yet others,
especially Austria, have warned of the fatal signal that preferential treatment
of Ukraine would send to the Western Balkans. It’s a concern that is shared in
Berlin. If Ukraine were to be granted candidate status, "this could cause
great frustration in the Balkans as long as there are no positive signals for
the Balkan countries at the same time,” say sources in the German government.
Meanwhile,
some southern European countries, especially Portugal, fear financial losses.
Southern European countries already feel disadvantaged compared to Eastern
Europe in the distribution of funds, and the admission of half a dozen new
members would divert more EU funds to the east. In a recent interview
Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa said that granting candidate status
wouldn’t solve any of Ukraine’s pressing problems and could instead raise "false
expectations."
Yet others,
especially Austria, have warned of the fatal signal preferential treatment of
Ukraine would send to the Western Balkans. It’s a concern that is shared in
Berlin. If Ukraine were to be granted candidate status, "this could cause
great frustration in the Balkans as long as there are no positive signals for
the Balkan countries at the same time,” say sources in the German government.
Meanwhile,
the government in Kyiv is seeking to placate critics by downplaying the
significance of candidate status. It does "not automatically mean that
Ukraine will join the EU,” stresses Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Andriy
Melnyk. He also said there was "no guarantee that Ukraine will be accepted
as a member state" Still, he said, a positive decision by EU leaders would
"set in motion an important process” for his country to do its
"homework" on the road to the EU.
Kyiv has
even signaled that a conditional candidacy status would be acceptable if
necessary. This would be a step backward politically, but not a disaster,
according to sources in diplomatic circles in Ukraine. That sounds quite a bit
different from what Zelenskyy has said about the matter so far. Only a few days
ago, he said that Ukraine’s accession was "about the whole European project
– whether it has a future as a really strong union."
However,
it’s also possible the Zelenskyy could get even less than conditional candidate
status at the summit – he could wind up with nothing at all. "A clear no
from the European Council on candidate status for Ukraine is unlikely, but it
can't be ruled out completely," says one senior EU diplomat. A single EU
leader – say, Viktor Orbán, who has recently been extremely reserved on Russian
sanctions – could use his veto to torpedo a summit decision. "That would
be a disaster for Ukraine and a loss of credibility for the claims of EU member
states that they stand up for common European values on their own
continent," says an EU official.
Ukraine is
counting on Chancellor Scholz to play a major role in preventing such a
disaster. As a leading EU member, Germany "has a critical role to
play" in bringing Ukraine closer to Europe, says Ukrainian Foreign
Minister Dmytro Kuleba.
Latvian
Prime Minister Krišjānis Kariņš has also sought to flatter Berlin. In the
Baltics, he says, people have been saying for years that Germany should lead
more strongly, which in this case means pulling Ukraine closer to the European
Union. Kariņš doesn’t believe there is any alternative. In Europe’s east there
is no longer any middle ground after Putin’s invasion, the Latvian leader says.
Either you are democratic, he says, and then you should be part of the EU. Or
you will be part of a Russian empire that Putin wants to recreate.
The result
is that much is hanging on the decision as to whether to grant Ukraine official
candidate status. Whether, for example, EU leaders are able to breathe life
into the "strategic sovereignty" and "global political
capability" that they love to tout in their speeches, often triggering
ridicule from other countries. Whether it has the strength to absorb a country
of 40 million people with rich natural resources and vast agriculture, even if
that process takes many years – and whether it can reinvent itself. An EU with
Ukraine and the countries of the Western Balkans would have no choice but to
revamp its architecture in many areas to avoid becoming even more sluggish that
it already is.
But the
alternative, that of keeping the door closed to Ukraine, is potentially even
worse.
The war is
forcing Europe to look at the big picture, says Latvian leader Kariņš, adding
that the bloc has an historic opportunity to play a more powerful role in the
world. Seizing the moment and making the necessary changes, he says, is
necessary because it is existential for all of us.
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