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ING’s Smith
writes that while the hawks at the Bank were outvoted 6-3, they have secured a
noticeably more hawkish policy statement, including the pledge to act
forcefully if cost pressures become more persistent.
“It’s pretty clear that the hawks are nervous
about the 8% fall in the pound versus the dollar we’ve seen so far this
quarter. Big picture, this is unlikely to change the inflation story
dramatically, but the hawks know this is one of the few things the Bank can
influence in an environment of rising dollar input prices.
“That means a 50bp move is still entirely
possible in August. That’s what markets are pricing, and by then we’re likely
to have had another 75bp hike from the Fed, both of which might just be enough
to tip the balance narrowly in favour of the hawks.
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