French budget chaos hobbles right-wing presidential hopefuls
Once seen
as top-tier candidates, both Edouard Philippe and Bruno Retailleau have emerged
from the chaotic process with their reputations bruised.
December
23, 2025 1:05 pm CET
By Clea
Caulcutt and Giorgio Leali
PARIS —
France’s messy budget debate, which ended with lawmakers failing to finalize
fiscal plans before the end of the year, has weakened mainstream leaders from
the political right hoping to keep Marine Le Pen’s National Rally at bay and
win the Elysée Palace in the next presidential election.
Recent
surveys by pollsters Odoxa and Ipsos show that both former Prime Minister
Edouard Philippe, who leads the center-right party Horizons and has already
declared his candidacy for the 2027 contest, and Bruno Retailleau, the head of
the conservative Les Républicains, took hits to their popularity from the
bruising budget negotiations.
“We’re
caught between our relative opposition to a budget that worsens the deficit and
our responsibility to give a budget to the country,” said Pierre-Henri Dumont,
deputy secretary general of Les Républicains. “It’s complicated.”
Retailleau
and Philippe attempted to cement their reputations as fiscally responsible
leaders throughout the process, calling for spending cuts to rein in a budget
deficit projected to come in at 5.4 percent of gross domestic product at the
end of the year.
To that
end, both came out against the social security budget, which passed by a
razor-thin margin earlier this month. And they have both been dragged into the
grueling and at times vaudevillian debate on a state budget, which lawmakers
failed to enact before the new year. The government will now roll over the 2025
budget into next year until lawmakers approve a proper state budget for 2026.
“All the
political leaders are clearly weakened by the budget talks,” said Bruno
Jeanbart, an OpinionWay pollster. “They are striving for something that is in
the national interest, but it is not in the interest of their parties.”
The
far-right National Rally, France’s most popular political party by most
indicators, also appeared to take a popularity hit during the budget process.
But it remains at the top of most opinion polls.
“Weakening
of leaders always benefits the National Rally, which has positioned itself
outside of mainstream politics,” Jeanbart said.
The
conservative dilemma
The
presidential election is still more than a year away, but the budget debate
could have been an opportunity for presidential hopefuls to stand out in an
increasingly crowded field of candidates.
The 2027
contest looms so large that Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu blamed “partisan
appetites” among possible candidates ahead of budget talks for the failure of
his first minority government, which lasted just 14 hours.
Lecornu
had said that the deficit for next year’s budget should not exceed 5 percent of
GDP, but that target was repeatedly put in danger by compromises to secure the
support of opposition parties, most notably the Socialists.
Such
concessions in the state and social security budgets have made them
indigestible for right-wing lawmakers who see reining in public spending as a
top priority and the most efficient way to bring down the deficit.
Leaders
such as Retailleau and Philippe have attempted to use the moment to take a
principled stand in the hopes their bold moves would help them establish a
reputation with the French public that will endure until campaign season gets
into full swing.
But that
political jockeying has put them at odds with some of their party rank and
file, who are more open to compromise to get on with the job of voting a
budget.
Having
publicly slammed the social security bill as a “fiscal hold-up,” the hardline
conservative Retailleau “was incensed” when 18 lawmakers from his party ignored
his call to vote against the text, said a senior Les Républicains official
granted anonymity to speak candidly.
Retailleau
saw those voting in favor of the social security budget as committing “an act
of defiance,” the official said.
Some of
Philippe’s lawmakers also voted for the social security budget even though
their party leader called on his troops to abstain.
The
pollster Jeanbart said Philippe’s stand is likely to damage his prospects in
the short term, as it complicates his efforts to broaden his base of support.
But for
Laurent Marcangeli, a former minister and current lawmaker from Philippe’s
Horizons party, standing by values of economic conservatism is essential at
this moment, even if it’s unpopular.
“I’m
convinced it’s going to help us in the long run,” he said.
Anthony Lattier contributed to this report.
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