Most Dutch voters blame PVV for cabinet fall, but Wilders’ party holds lead

 

Saturday, 7 June 2025 - 08:45

https://nltimes.nl/2025/06/07/dutch-voters-blame-pvv-cabinet-fall-wilders-party-holds-lead

Most Dutch voters blame PVV for cabinet fall, but Wilders’ party holds lead

 

Most Dutch voters blame Geert Wilders’ PVV for the fall of the Schoof government, but the party remains the largest in the country, according to a new Ipsos I&O poll conducted for NOS after the collapse of the right-wing cabinet. The survey reveals a deepening political divide, with conservative and progressive camps moving further apart amid tensions over asylum policy and coalition-building.

 

61 percent of voters say the PVV is responsible for the cabinet’s downfall. A majority also believes that the party prioritized its own interests above those of the country—60 percent agree with that statement, while only 17 percent disagree. Among PVV voters, just 15 percent share that view.

 

Despite this, the PVV would still win 30 seats if elections were held today, according to the June 6 projection. That figure is unchanged since May 12, but it is seven seats fewer than the 37 it won in the November 2023 general election—a 19 percent drop in voter support. Even so, the PVV remains ahead of its rivals, with GL-PvdA projected at 26 seats and the VVD at 23.

 

Some voters expressed frustration with Wilders for pulling out of the governing coalition. One respondent who had intended to vote PVV last month said they now prefer JA21, commenting, “The chance that has now been wasted to save the Netherlands was really ruined by the PVV.”

 

However, the party also picked up new voters—primarily from the VVD—who back the PVV’s tough stance on asylum and blame the liberals for blocking stricter immigration policies. As a result, the PVV’s gains nearly offset its losses, leaving its overall support unchanged since the cabinet collapse.

 

The poll shows the VVD is facing internal tensions over its next steps. 42 percent of its voters want the party to exclude the PVV from any future coalition talks, while 34 percent oppose doing so.

 

This division reportedly reflects a broader split in the electorate. While 48 percent of voters believe the PVV squandered a historic opportunity to implement tougher asylum policy by quitting the cabinet, 39 percent sympathize with Wilders’ decision. Moreover, over a third of voters blame VVD, NSC and BBB for blocking stricter asylum rules.

 

Looking ahead to a new coalition, most voters favor a government that includes the VVD and CDA. When combining voters’ party preference with those they would like to see in a coalition, both VVD and CDA each receive 48 percent support. GL-PvdA follows at 39 percent, D66 at 35 percent, and the PVV trails at 28 percent.

 

The results suggest a modest resurgence for the CDA, which has been in long-term decline. The Party for the Animals (PvdD) also gained ground. These shifts contrast with a continued slide in support for both GL-PvdA and the VVD, while the rise in support for the far-right FvD stood out as unexpected.

 

When asked which parties they do not want their preferred party to govern with, 51 percent of respondents named the PVV—up from 37 percent before the 2023 election, though unchanged from April 2025. This suggests the cabinet collapse did not further increase resistance to Wilders' party.

 

Among VVD voters, only 18 percent reportedly support cooperation with the PVV, and 41 percent explicitly reject it. However, resistance to GL-PvdA is even higher: just 9 percent of VVD voters support working with the leftist bloc led by Frans Timmermans, while 56 percent are opposed.

 

That marks a deterioration in VVD attitudes toward GL-PvdA since April, when opposition stood at 50 percent. According to I&O, this makes clear that VVD voters feel more hostility toward the left than toward the far-right, at least in coalition terms.

 

That divide is reflected in how voters view party leaders. Both Wilders and Timmermans are now rated slightly more negatively overall than they were three weeks ago, but support from their own bases has reportedly increased. In other words, polarization is intensifying as partisans harden their loyalties while mutual distrust between camps deepens.