From 3h ago
18.33
Javid/Sunak
resignations - snap analysis
It could
all be over for Boris Johnson - although quite how long it will take his
enemies to finish him off is not at all clear and his defenestration does not
look immediate. The two byelection defeats almost two weeks ago prompted calls
for cabinet ministers to mount a coup against Boris Johnson, and it finally it
seems to be happening.
We have not
had confirmation yet, but it is impossible to believe that the resignations of
Sajid Javid and Rishi Sunak were not coordinated. Perhaps there are more to come.
The Sunak
resignation is the most serious of the two. Since the spring statement, the
chancellor has not been the obvious heir apparent he once was. But he is still
a powerful figure in the party. The resignation of Nigel Lawson helped to bring
down Margaret Thatcher, although it took just over a year for that to
eventually play out.
Even if
there are no more resignations, the mood in the Conservative party has already
turned against Johnson – perhaps decisively.
Under
current rules Johnson is safe from another leadership challenge until next
summer. But the executive of the 1922 Committee can change the rules whenever
it wants. A new anti-Johnson executive is expected to be elected next week, but
even the current executive – more evently split between loyalists and critics –
could act now if it felt there was a consensus in the party.
Johnson is
famously stubborn, and he is unlikely to quit just because two ministers have
decided to go. But increasingly Conservative MPs believe they have no chance of
winning the next election under his leadership. Ultimately that
assessment should prove decisive.
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