As Sunak and Javid quit cabinet, is it all over
for Boris Johnson?
Analysis: PM is stubborn but if Tory MPs believe he is
a liability that may prove decisive
Andrew
Sparrow
@AndrewSparrow
Tue 5 Jul
2022 18.49 BST
With Rishi
Sunak and Sajid Javid gone from the cabinet, it could all be over for Boris
Johnson – although quite how long it will take his enemies to finish him off is
not at all clear and his defenestration does not look immediate.
The two
byelection defeats almost two weeks ago prompted calls for cabinet ministers to
mount a coup against the prime minister, and in the wake of the Chris Pincher
scandal it finally seems to be happening.
We have not
had confirmation yet, but it is impossible to believe that the resignations of
Javid and Sunak were not coordinated. Perhaps there are more to come.
Sunak’s
resignation is the most serious of the two. Since the spring statement, the
chancellor has not been the obvious heir apparent he once was. But he is still
a powerful figure in the party. The resignation of Nigel Lawson helped bring
down Margaret Thatcher, although it took just over a year for that to
eventually play out.
Even if
there are no more resignations, the mood in the Conservative party has already
turned against Johnson, perhaps decisively.
Under
current rules Johnson is safe from another leadership challenge until next
summer. But the executive of the 1922 Committee can change the rules whenever
it wants.
A new
anti-Johnson executive is expected to be elected next week, but even the
current executive – more evenly split between loyalists and critics – could act
now if it felt there was a consensus in the party.
Johnson is
famously stubborn, and he is unlikely to quit just because two ministers have
decided to go. But increasingly Conservative MPs believe they have no chance of
winning the next election under his leadership.
Ultimately
that assessment should prove decisive.
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