Boris Johnson limps on for now but for how much
longer?
Analysis: while Javid and Sunak resignations did not
lead to deluge of other departures, many in party believe end is nigh for PM
Rowena
Mason Deputy political editor
Tue 5 Jul
2022 19.45 BST
It was the
blow to Boris Johnson that every one of his backbench critics had been waiting
for.
Sajid
Javid, the health secretary, followed shortly by Rishi Sunak, the chancellor,
posted their letters of resignation on Twitter, criticising the competence of
the government.
Neither
explicitly mentioned the sexual misconduct and Partygate scandals that have
dogged the government for months. Sunak in particular claimed the prompt for
his resignation was his differing approach on the economy.
But the
backdrop to both resignations was Johnson’s catastrophic handling of the Chris
Pincher affair, after he admitted appointing his ally as deputy chief whip
despite having been told of misconduct allegations against him.
Just
seconds earlier, Johnson had told the cameras that he was sorry for his
mistakes in appointing Pincher, and he had toured the House of Commons tearoom
saying that “everyone deserves a second chance”.
The problem
is that Johnson is not on his second chance but a number much higher than that
after scandals such as Partygate, Tory donors funding his flat renovations, his
overriding of Security Service advice to give a peerage to Evgeny Lebedev, and
attempts to rewrite the standards system.
The two
major resignations did not lead to an immediate further deluge of cabinet
ministers quitting but Tory MPs critical of Johnson still believe this means
the end is nigh for the prime minister.
There are
now two heavyweight opponents of the prime minister on the backbenches, where
they may be able to devote more time to building leadership campaigns to
eventually succeed him. Sunak and Javid will also – like Jeremy Hunt – be able
to offer a critique of Johnsonism from outside the government. A string of
Sunak supporters, including Huw Merriman and Kevin Hollinrake, were among those
to applaud the former chancellor.
There is
also a possibility of further government resignations trickling out over the
coming days, giving a sense that Johnson is unable to command enough support to
fill all the spaces in his government.
If that
does not happen, the focus is on the 1922 Committee elections, which are likely
to result in a slate of Johnson critics being elected and the rules being
changed in favour of holding another confidence vote on the prime minister’s
future.
Johnson has
maintained the confidence of his party by a slim margin – but it would only
take about 32 MPs to switch side at some point in the coming months for his
premiership to be over.
Some
remaining cabinet ministers loyal to Johnson have discussed battening down the
hatches in the hope of Keir Starmer getting fined by Durham police within days,
one cabinet source said.
They
believe it may be possible for Johnson to ride out the storm if attention could
soon be turned on to a leadership and ethics crisis in Labour.
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But
equally, the situation feels unsustainable to many Tory government aides. “I’m
just detecting more despair,” one says. “Ministers and civil servants are
behaving like there’s no one in control. Because No 10’s bandwidth is so
consumed by this. You cannot get the system to work efficiently during this
time. It’s just another shitshow. But I think it feels different in that
patience is wearing thin.”
Another
cabinet source said: “We limp on.”
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