Europe Sacrifices Green Efforts Due to War in
Ukraine
March 05,
2022 /
Alison Long
Europe is
facing a worsening energy crisis and will be forced to put their green
ambitions on hold due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In order for Europe
to protect itself from potential gas stoppage from its current and largest
energy supplier, Russia, policy makers in Europe are planning to take emergency
measures. These measures go against Europe’s collective effort in recent years to
protect the environment, which will lead to an increase in emissions, at least
in the short-term.
On Feb. 28,
EU energy ministers called an emergency meeting to discuss the potential
scenarios that could develop due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A
particularly pressing uncertainty surrounding the issue is the possibility of
Russian retaliation after western governments’ decision to impose harsh
sanctions against Russia. One other factor adding on to the issue is the
possibility of military conflict causing damage to one of the pipelines that
crosses Ukraine.
European
officials have expressed their plans to put policies in place against the
amounting pressure of energy insecurity. According to an article by Bloomberg,
some of these plans are to “increase gas-import capacities, build new LNG
terminals, stockpile more coal and reopen power plants that burn the dirtiest
fossil fuel.” These measures are in contradiction with the EU’s push to go
green in recent years. As part of the European Green Deal, the bloc adopted a
strict binding emissions-reduction target for 2030 and is in the on-going
process of negotiating the set of legislation in the target’s implementation.
The main strategies proposed in Europe’s green shift are centered around
phasing out traditional energy sources and transitioning to alternative ones.
Now in the crisis, European countries like Germany and Italy are making plans
to expand LNG import capacities and prolong the use of coal.
As EU
Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson stated, “we can’t exclude that Russia will
take retaliatory steps that will impact the energy trade,” Europe is facing the
very real threat of losing Russia’s energy supply. This would be a very hard
hit on the bloc despite the existence of alternative partners, since Russian
gas import currently makes up around 35 percent of Europe’s total and many
alternative routes to deliver gas to Europe. The one from Norway is already at
full capacity.
Although physical
deliveries of gas from Russia to Europe have so far remained largely
undisturbed and a recent study has found that Europe’s economy will survive the
risk, the fear of a gas supply stoppage has already caused European energy
prices to reach record levels. According to a Reuters report, “European and
British gas prices soared on Wednesday, with a benchmark Dutch front-month gas
contract at the TTF hub hitting a record intraday high of 185 euros a tonne.”
European Natural Gas Analyst Leon Izbicki attributed the price change directly
to the political uncertainty around Ukraine, stating that "the main driver
behind the sharp rise in the TTF is a perceived increase in the risk of
European sanctions targeting Russian energy exports."
While
European policy makers are being pressured into stepping back from their
environmental pledges to protect their economy from the risk, environmental
group Deutsche Umwelthilfe warned that these emergency policies to help in the
short-term could increase Europe’s dependence on gas in the future. According
to an article by Financial Times, the EU’s dependence on Russian gas has long
hindered its political capacity to wield punishing sanctions on Russia, as well
as made it vulnerable to gas-price fluctuations. For Mark Lewis, Andurand
Capital Management’s head of climate research, the strategic decision for
Europe in the long run points to energy independence by decarbonizing its
energy system. As Europe looks to the international community for alternative
gas suppliers, there is also an increasing call for renewable solutions like
nuclear energy.
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