Climate Change Could Force Over 140 Million to
Migrate Within Countries by 2050: World Bank Report
World Bank
Group
WASHINGTON,
March 19, 2018 - The worsening impacts of climate change in three densely
populated regions of the world could see over 140 million people move within
their countries’ borders by 2050, creating a looming human crisis and
threatening the development process, a new World Bank Group report finds
But with
concerted action - including global efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions and
robust development planning at the country level – this worst-case scenario of
over 140m could be dramatically reduced, by as much as 80 percent, or more than
100 million people.
The report,
Groundswell – Preparing for Internal Climate Migration, is the first and most
comprehensive study of its kind to focus on the nexus between slow-onset
climate change impacts, internal migration patterns and, development in three
developing regions of the world: Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Latin
America.
It finds
that unless urgent climate and development action is taken globally and
nationally, these three regions together could be dealing with tens of millions
of internal climate migrants by 2050. These are people forced to move from
increasingly non-viable areas of their countries due to growing problems like
water scarcity, crop failure, sea-level rise and storm surges.
These
“climate migrants” would be additional to the millions of people already moving
within their countries for economic, social, political or other reasons, the
report warns.
World Bank
Chief Executive Officer Kristalina Georgieva said the new research provides a
wake-up call to countries and development institutions.
“We have a
small window now, before the effects of climate change deepen, to prepare the
ground for this new reality,” Georgieva said. “Steps cities take to cope with
the upward trend of arrivals from rural areas and to improve opportunities for
education, training and jobs will pay long-term dividends. It’s also important
to help people make good decisions about whether to stay where they are or move
to new locations where they are less vulnerable.”
The
research team, led by World Bank Lead Environmental Specialist Kanta Kumari
Rigaud and including researchers and modelers from CIESIN Columbia University,
CUNY Institute of Demographic Research, and the Potsdam Institute for Climate
Impact Research - applied a multi-dimensional modeling approach to estimate the
potential scale of internal climate migration across the three regions.
They looked
at three potential climate change and development scenarios, comparing the most
“pessimistic” (high greenhouse gas emissions and unequal development paths), to
“climate friendly” and “more inclusive development” scenarios in which climate
and national development action increases in line with the challenge. Across
each scenario, they applied demographic, socioeconomic and climate impact data
at a 14-square kilometer grid-cell level to model likely shifts in population
within countries.
This
approach identified major “hotspots” of climate in- and out-migration - areas
from which people are expected to move and urban, peri-urban and rural areas to
which people will try to move to build new lives and livelihoods.
“Without
the right planning and support, people migrating from rural areas into cities
could be facing new and even more dangerous risks,” said the report’s team lead
Kanta Kumari Rigaud. “We could see increased tensions and conflict as a result
of pressure on scarce resources. But that doesn’t have to be the future. While
internal climate migration is becoming a reality, it won’t be a crisis if we
plan for it now.”
The report
recommends key actions nationally and globally, including:
Cutting
global greenhouse gas emissions to reduce climate pressure on people and
livelihoods, and to reduce the overall scale of climate migration
Transforming
development planning to factor in the entire cycle of climate migration
(before, during and after migration)
Investing
in data and analysis to improve understanding of internal climate migration
trends and trajectories at the country level.
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário