Brussels Playbook: VDL heads to Israel — Macron
majority in peril — Foodies, pay attention
BY SUZANNE
LYNCH
June 13,
2022 7:00 am
POLITICO
Brussels Playbook
By SUZANNE
LYNCH
PALESTINE
FUNDS: The EU could unblock millions of euros in funds to Palestine this week,
Playbook is told, as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen heads
to Israel, the first leg of a whistle-stop tour of the Middle East.
Explainer:
The Commission had held back disbursing funding to the Palestinian Authority
over the content of Palestinian school textbooks, which some pro-Israeli groups
believe have anti-Semitic content. In a letter in May, first reported in
Playbook, 15 countries urged the Commission not to impose conditionality,
arguing that it was depriving Palestinians of desperately-needed funding,
including for health care treatment.
Várhelyi
not happy: The issue has divided the Commission, with the vast majority of
commissioners — including foreign policy chief Josep Borrell — strongly in
favor of releasing the money. But Hungary’s Olivér Várhelyi, the enlargement
commissioner, held up the process last year, introducing the conditionality
issue.
Some
discontent: Though the vast majority of the Commission, and member states, are
in favor of disbursing the money, not everyone is happy. “I’m extremely
disappointed by this decision,” Greek MEP Anna Michelle Asimakopoulou told
Playbook. “Zero tolerance cannot just be a slogan. It needs to be reflected in
our actions. This is a missed opportunity to effect much-needed change when it
comes to the content of Palestinian textbooks.”
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All about
the timing: A decision to unlock the funds is likely to make for some
uncomfortable small talk when von der Leyen meets Israeli Prime Minister
Naftali Bennett and President Isaac Herzog. She will also receive an honorary
doctorate from Ben-Gurion University, and is due to visit Ramallah Tuesday,
before traveling on to Egypt and Jordan.
Change the
subject: But while the intractable Israeli-Palestinian conflict will form a
backdrop to the visit, the Commission is keen to refocus the discussion on
another issue — energy. First in Israel, and then in Jordan and Egypt, von der
Leyen is expected to highlight the possibilities of collaboration on energy, as
the EU tries to wean itself off Russian supplies, examining ways of importing
natural gas from the eastern Mediterranean. A plan to ramp up gas exports from
Egypt to the EU is expected to be unveiled, with the Commission chief also set
to discuss the burgeoning food crisis with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah
el-Sisi.
FRANCE
VOTES: French President Emmanuel Macron is facing a battle to retain his
majority in the National Assembly, after a left-wing coalition led by firebrand
Jean-Luc Mélenchon had a stellar showing in the first round of legislative
elections Sunday.
NUPED: The
left-wing NUPES alliance finished neck and neck with Macron’s Ensemble!
coalition, with the former at 25.66 percent and the latter at 25.75 percent,
with all ballots counted. The strong performance of the motley crew of
left-wing parties — transformed into a formidable political bloc under
Mélenchon — has shaken up the race ahead of next Sunday’s second round, which
will decide the make-up of the 577-member assembly. “The truth is that the
presidential party, after the first round, is defeated and undone,” Mélenchon
said Sunday. “In democracy, you have to convince. We have convinced a lot.”
Why it
matters: A loss of a majority in the National Assembly will make it much more
difficult for Macron to implement his domestic agenda, for example on pensions,
though major decisions on foreign and defense policy would still be mainly the
domain of the president.
Remember
him? Eric Zemmour, the right-wing TV pundit turned politician who tried to
out-Le Pen Marine Le Pen in the presidential race, performed abysmally, losing
in the first round in his constituency in southern France.
Le Pen
performance: Le Pen’s National Rally failed to match the party’s strong
performance in the presidential election, securing 18 percent of the vote
according to the projections, compared to more than 40 percent in the second
round of the presidential election. But her party is on track to significantly
increase the number of seats it holds in the assembly compared to five years
ago.
L’ennui:
Turnout hit a record low, with just 47 percent participation according to
polls.
What now?
Sunday’s disappointing results in comparison to the 58 percent support Macron
won in April have already sparked questions about the governing coalition’s
lackluster and possibly over-cautious campaign efforts. The last few weeks have
also been dominated by poor press for the president, including accusations of
dithering over nominating a new government, the policing fiasco at the Champions
League final and sexual assault allegations against one of Macron’s ministers.
Clea Caulcutt has more.
MEANWHILE,
IN ITALY: Right-wing candidates look set to triumph in key regional capitals
after the country voted Sunday for mayors in almost 1,000 towns and cities.
Some 9 million Italians were eligible to vote in the local elections, with 26
provincial and regional capitals challenged. Candidates on the right looked on
track to win in the first round in Genoa and Palermo, respectively Italy’s
fifth and sixth largest cities, exit polls suggested. The right-wing candidate
in a third regional capital, L’Aquila, was also close to clinching a
first-round win.
JOHNSON
DEFIES BRUSSELS: The British government will unveil new legislation
unilaterally amending the Northern Ireland protocol today, in a serious
escalation of tensions between Brussels and London over post-Brexit trading
arrangements.
Background:
The Boris Johnson-led government has argued that the arrangements governing
trade in and out of Northern Ireland, agreed as part of the Brexit deal, are
not working. Now they’re proposing significant changes, breaching the very deal
they agreed to.
All
politics is local: Johnson is still standing, but severely weakened, after 41
percent of his own MPs voted against him in a no-confidence vote last week. It
is unclear if he has a majority to ultimately get the legislation over the
line. Several Tory MPs have publicly expressed alarm at the prospect of the
U.K. breaking international law, but Foreign Secretary Liz Truss is also trying
to keep the Euroskeptic zealots within the party, not to mention the Democratic
Unionist Party (DUP), happy, though there were reports Sunday night that Truss
has told the DUP it must return to government in Northern Ireland before the
bill goes through the House of Lords.
What to
watch for today: How far the legislation will go. Any change to the role of the
Court of Justice of the European Union, for example, is a no-no for the
European Commission. The U.K. could also propose removing the EU’s role in
state aid — another non-starter for Brussels. Here’s more from Cristina
Gallardo.
Over to
you, Brussels: We’re expecting a statement from Brexit point man Maroš Šefčovič
later today. While there is still a window for a compromise to be thrashed out
between the two sides before the legislation comes into play (if it ever does),
national capitals have made it clear they won’t shy away from infringement
proceedings and trade retaliation if necessary — a message that is coming from
the highest levels of government, in Berlin in particular.
Reminder:
Britain can ill-afford a trade war at the moment. The OECD forecast last week
that Britain is on course to perform the worst, bar Russia, of all G20
countries next year in terms of economic growth. A Brexit dividend, you might
say …
IN OTHER
NEWS Share on Twitter Share on Facebook Share on Linkedin Share on Handclap
KYIV-BOUND:
Von der Leyen made a surprise visit to Kyiv Saturday, pledging to unveil the
Commission’s assessment of Ukraine’s application for EU membership by the end
of the week. But further high-level visits could be in the pipeline. German
media outlet Bild am Sonntag reported that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will
visit with Emmanuel Macron and Italian leader Mario Draghi this month.
Moscow
(un)bound: Someone who will not be going to Kyiv any time soon …. Matteo
Salvini. The right-wing Italian politician has been left red-faced after it
emerged that the Russian embassy in Italy said it had paid for an aborted trip
in late May for Salvini and his entourage to Moscow. Details here.
Lost in
translation: This piece by Hans von der Burchard unpacks Scholz’s communication
issues. Far from delivering the leadership he promised voters, Scholz has left
many scratching their heads with various policy pronouncements and
justifications for his approach to military support for Ukraine, he writes.
TURKEY
THREAT: NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg heads to Sweden today, after a Sunday visit
to Finland during which he said that Turkey has “legitimate concerns” over the
Nordic countries’ NATO bids.
In comments
that raised some eyebrows — but are more likely part of a charm offensive to
get Ankara on board ahead of the NATO summit later this month — Stoltenberg
said that Turkey had “legitimate concerns” about the bids. “This is about
terrorism, it’s about weapons exports,” he said alongside Finnish President
Sauli Niinistö. “We have to remember and understand that no NATO ally has
suffered more terrorist attacks than Turkey.”
Stoltenberg
is today due to meet with Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, whose own
government teetered last week over demands not to cave to Turkey’s demands.
Expect lots of outreach to Ankara behind the scenes in the coming weeks.
SPAIN’S POP
POLARIZER: Since coming to office in 2019, Madrid region president Isabel Díaz
Ayuso has made a name for herself by taking on fights with anyone and everyone.
As Aitor Hernández-Morales writes, Ayuso wields a remarkable amount of power —
and she’s using it to sway her party into the arms of the far-right, with whom
she says it should be willing to govern. That’s especially relevant ahead of
Sunday’s key regional election in Andalucía. Read Aitor’s piece here.
DON’T LOSE
FOCUS: A group of NGOs issued a joint statement this morning urging the EU not
to dial back its refugee resettlement efforts, as Europe’s focus continues on
the Ukraine crisis. The group, which includes
Amnesty and the International Rescue Committee, states that, as of the end of
April, just 4,075 resettled refugees had arrived in EU countries since the
start of this year. It comes as EU interior ministers in Luxembourg on Friday
gave political backing to the solidarity mechanism on migration, which will see
most, but not all, EU members participate in the voluntary system — a move that
is not enough for many campaigners.
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