Dutch election favorite Rob Jetten is the EU’s
dream
But Geert Wilders isn’t finished yet.
Democracy
66 leader and fervent pro-European liberal Rob Jetten celebrates election
success in Leiden. |
Dutch
election 2025
October
30, 2025 4:10 am CET
By Tim
Ross
BRUSSELS
— Wednesday’s election in the Netherlands should surely go down as one of the
best days Europe’s centrists have enjoyed in years.
Geert
Wilders, the far-right populist who touted leaving the EU on his way to a shock
victory in the 2023 election, lost nearly a third of his voters after 11
chaotic months for his Party for Freedom (PVV) in coalition.
At the
same time, the fervently pro-European liberal Rob Jetten surged in the final
days of the campaign and stands a good chance of becoming prime minister. At
38, he would be the youngest person to hold the office since World War II and
the first openly gay candidate ever to do so.
“Many in
the Brussels bubble will welcome the rise of a mainstream, pro-governing and
reform-oriented party,” said one EU diplomat, granted anonymity because the
subject is politically sensitive. “The Dutch have a lot to contribute to the
EU.”
But even
as they exhale with relief at the end of the Wilders interlude, the inhabitants
of Europe’s dominant liberal center-ground — those Brussels officials,
diplomats and ministers who run the EU show — would be well advised not to
celebrate too hard.
If
previous years are any guide, the final shape of the next government and its
policy plans will not become clear for months.
Who knows
what will have happened in Ukraine, the Middle East, or in Donald Trump’s trade
war with China in that time? “It is essential for European cooperation that a
new government is stable and able to make bold decisions, given the current
geopolitical challenges that Europe is facing,” the same diplomat said.
Even when
the new coalition finally begins its work, this election should worry Europe’s
liberal centrists almost as much as it delights them.
Jetten
into Europe
Jetten’s
Democracy 66 party has never done so well at a Dutch election: Assuming he gets
the job he wants, he’ll be the party’s first prime minister. This week he told
POLITICO he wanted to move the Netherlands closer to the EU.
Last
night, officials in Brussels privately welcomed the prospect of the Dutch and
their highly regarded diplomats returning to their historic place at the center
of EU affairs, after two years in which they lost some influence.
It was
always going to be tough for the outgoing PM Dick Schoof, a 68-year-old
technocrat, to follow the long-serving Mark Rutte, an EU star who now runs
NATO. Domestic divisions made his job even harder.
But
pro-European spirits also rose because the disruptive Wilders had wanted to
keep the EU at arm’s length. Jetten’s position could hardly be more different.
In fact, he sounds like an EU federalist’s dream.
“We want
to stop saying ‘no’ by default, and start saying ‘yes’ to doing more together,”
Jetten told POLITICO this week. “I cannot stress enough how dire Europe’s
situation will be if we do not integrate further.”
Staying
Dutch
In
Brussels, officials expect the next Dutch administration to maintain the same
broad outlook on core policies: restraint on the EU’s long-term budget;
cracking down on migration; boosting trade and competitiveness; and supporting
Ukraine, alongside stronger common defense.
One area
where things could get complicated is climate policy. Jetten is committed to
climate action and may end up in a power-sharing deal with GreenLeft-Labor,
which was led at this election by former EU Green Deal chief Frans Timmermans.
How any
government that Jetten leads balances climate action with improving economic
growth will be key to policy discussions in Brussels.
European
Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has been trimming climate measures
amid center-right complaints that they are expensive for consumers and
businesses. But she wants to secure backing for new targets to cut greenhouse
gas emissions by 2040.
Elsewhere,
housing and migration — two areas often linked by far-right politicians — were
central issues in the Dutch campaign. Both will continue to feature on the EU’s
agenda, too.
For many
watching the results unfold in Brussels, the biggest concerns are practical:
Will the next Dutch government be more stable than the last one? And how long
will it take to for the coalition to form? Seven months passed between the last
election in November 2023 and Schoof taking office as prime minister in July
2024.
“This is
a historic election result because we’ve shown not only to the Netherlands but
also to the world that it’s possible to beat populist and extreme-right
movements,” Jetten told his supporters. “I’m very eager to cooperate with other
parties to start an ambitious coalition as soon as possible.”
Wilders
Beneath
the rare good news of a pro-European triumph and a far-right failure lurk more
worrying trends for EU centrists.
First of
all, there’s the sheer volatility of the result. Most voters apparently made up
their minds at the last moment.
Wilders
went from winning the popular vote and taking 37 of the 150 seats in the Dutch
lower house in 2023 to a projected 26 seats this time. Jetten’s D66 party,
meanwhile, went from just nine seats two years ago to a projected 26, according
to a preliminary forecast by the Dutch news agency ANP.
The
center-right Christian Democratic Appeal took just five seats in 2023 but now
stands to win 18, according to the forecast. With swings this wild, anything
could happen next time.
Most
major parties say they won’t work with Wilders in coalition now, making Jetten
the more likely new PM if the projections hold. But Wilders says he is a long
way from finished. “You won’t be rid of me until I’m 80,” the 62 year-old told
supporters.
In fact,
Wilders might find a period in opposition — free from the constraints and
compromises required in government — the perfect place to resume his
inflammatory campaigns against Islam, immigration and the EU.
Donald
Trump, Marine Le Pen and Nigel Farage had all been written off before storming
back into their respective political front lines.
“We had
hoped for a different outcome, but we stood our ground,” Wilders wrote on X.
“We are more determined than ever.”
Timm’s up
The other
cloud on the pro-European horizon is the fate of Timmermans.
His
center-left ticket was expected to do well and had been polling second behind
Wilders’ Freedom Party in the months before the vote.
But per
the preliminary forecast, GreenLeft-Labor will fall from 25 seats to 20.
Timmermans — who also stood in 2023 — resigned as leader.
It wasn’t
just a defeat for the party, but also in some ways for Brussels. Timmermans had
served as the European Commission’s executive vice president during von der
Leyen’s first term, and was seen by some, especially his opponents, as a
creation of the EU bubble.
Others
point to the fact the center-left is struggling across Europe.
“It’s
clear that I, for whatever reason, couldn’t convince people to vote for us,”
Timmermans said. “It’s time that I take a step back and transfer the lead of
our movement to the next generation.”
Jetten’s
pro-Europeanism could also come back to haunt him by the time of the next
election. If he fails to deliver miracles to back up his optimistic pitch to
voters, his Euroskeptic opponents have a ready-made argument for what went
wrong.
Recent
history in the Netherlands, and elsewhere, suggests they won’t be afraid to use
it.
Eva
Hartog, Hanne Cokelaere, Pieter Haeck and Max Griera contributed reporting.
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