London Playbook: Watching with interest — Suella hits the ground — Changing rooms

 

London Playbook: Watching with interest — Suella hits the ground — Changing rooms

BY EMILIO CASALICCHIO

NOVEMBER 3, 2022 8:00 AM

https://www.politico.eu/newsletter/london-playbook/london-playbook-watching-with-interest-suella-hits-the-ground-changing-rooms/

 

POLITICO London Playbook

By EMILIO CASALICCHIO

 

Good Thursday morning. Unless you’re Matt Hancock — in which case, good evening. This is Emilio Casalicchio. Esther Webber will be here tomorrow.

 

SPOTTED last night … At a Westminster drinks event hosted by Penny Mordaunt to thank supporters of her two recent leadership campaigns: Former Cabinet Minister Andrea Leadsom … Scotland Office Minister John Lamont … Veteran MP John Penrose … supportive MPs Craig Tracey, Kieran Mullan, Robbie Moore, Harriet Baldwin, Mary Robinson, Ian Levy and others.

 

Follow the leader: Mordaunt was in full Sunak-supporting mode from the sounds of it. “I called Boris’ bluff and I’m calling Keir Starmer’s!” she told pals. “They haven’t got the numbers and they’re not going to win! I’ve been around long enough to say it’s time to back Rishi, folks, and the only way forward is to back our new PM. He’s my friend, he’s our leader and yes he’s always going to be our PM.”

 

Come on, Rishi: Does that not deserve a promotion, prime minister?

 

**A message from Lloyds Banking Group: “It's a relief to not have to think about it now”. Current uncertainty is a real worry for our mortgage customers. That's why we've written to around 220,000 mortgage customers, and we’re calling 30,000 customers on our Standard Variable Rate to support if they want to reduce their mortgage payments. Find out more.**

 

DRIVING THE DAY

WATCHING WITH INTEREST: Westminster will be glued to developments at the Bank of England at noon, when its team of brainiacs reveals a much-anticipated interest rate rise — expected to be its biggest for three decades. The markets are primed for a 0.75 percent increase, which would drag the base rate kicking and screaming up to 3 percent and have an immediate and painful impact on tracker mortgages. It would be the eighth consecutive rate hike for the bank and take interest rates to levels not seen since 2008. That sound you can hear is Liz Truss muttering something into the breeze about Vladimir Putin.

 

Simple as MPC: The announcement will happen at noon and be followed with a Bank of England press conference to explain things at 12.30 p.m. The BoE will also release new economic forecasts, which are expected to be less depressing than their August offering (five quarters of negative growth) but still quite depressing (a recession could still be on the cards).

 

Meanwhile: Keep watch for Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who will appear in a TV clip from South London following the announcement, and Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves, who will also be doing the same but from Cornwall. Expect Reeves to pile the blame on the Tories, in particular over the previous two months under Truss.

 

WORTH A READ: Telegraph financial hacks who understand this kind of thing explain in this useful primer that the bank will be feeling the pressure to impose a 0.75 percent increase after the U.S. Federal Reserve did so. It’s worth noting though that the Fed rate is now 3.75 percent to 4 percent, so still higher than Britain is expected to end up this afternoon. That sound? Oh, it’s just Liz Truss muttering something or other about global headwinds.

 

Bringing it home: A 3 percent rate would mean an £84 per month increase for homeowners with a £200,000 mortgage, amounting to just over £1,000 over 12 months, the Tele notes.

 

But but but: In the same paper, Melissa Lawford points out that fixed-rate mortgage costs are not expected to be pushed up further because deals ended up “overpriced” after Liz Truss got her hands on the levers of power and sent British economics into a tailspin. Lawford explains that experts reckon lenders have added such a large “Truss premium” to their fixed-rate prices that the announcement this afternoon won’t trouble the waters.

 

COUNTERING THE TRUSS PREMIUM: That might be somewhat reassuring for fixed-rate homeowners, but the picture for Hunt and Prime Minister Rishi Sunak still looks something like a massive black hole, the bottom of which is almost un-glimpse-able. But there are various wheezes in the papers the pair could implement at the next not-budget on November 17 in a bid to solve the problem.

 

For example: The Times splash from Steven Swinford appears to confirm a report in the Sunday Times from Harry Yorke that the windfall tax on fuel firms (that have been absorbing so much profit it’s hard to know what to do with it all) could be hiked from 25 percent to 30 percent; last until 2028; and be extended to electricity generators. Playbook is told the proposal is firmly on the table.

 

Also: Sunak has shelved plans to beef up Northern Powerhouse Rail, according to Arj Singh in the i newspaper.

 

And: In the Mail, Jason Groves muses through some of the options to reform the pensions triple lock.

 

Still to come: Hunt and defense sec Ben Wallace will hold talks later on what the not-budget will mean for defense spending. It’s not a huge surprise that Wallace poured cold water on reports he could quit if there turns out not to be enough cash. Sunak is also meeting colleagues today and doing work on the fall statement.

 

WHILE WE’RE WAITING: Rachel Reeves is giving a speech at 3 p.m. to the Anthropy conference held at the Eden Project in Cornwall, in which she’ll be talking about the Labour plan for growth (insulation, a government-owned fuel firm, carbon capture and storage and making batteries) and hope to paint the opposition as a stable alternative when it comes to economic management. 

 

In her own words: “As a country, we have become not only more unequal but also poorer,” Reeves will declare. “The problems we face are global. But Britain’s unique exposure each time has been down to a failure to get to grips with more than a decade of weak growth, low productivity and underinvestment and widening inequality. I believe we can overcome these challenges and grasp the opportunities presented by new technologies, and by the climate transition.”

 

IN BETTER NEWS FOR HUNT: The warm October saved the government £260 million in support funding, according to Todd Gillespie in a Bloomberg piece that went online about an hour ago. October gas demand was down 19 percent compared to usual as households avoided turning on their heating. It’s not a lot of cash in the grand scheme of things, but the Sunak administration needs all it can get its hands on.

 

**Do not miss MEP Sirpa Pietikäinen (EPP, Finland) at POLITICO’s Spotlight “Chronically underserved – bridging the gap in chronic care” on November 9 at 3:30 p.m. CET. This event will take a critical look at the challenges that people with chronic diseases have to face and how the revamp of pharmaceutical rules can improve their access to care and quality of life. Register now!**

 

THE GOOD SHIP SUELLA

SUELLA HITS THE GROUND: Home Secretary Suella Braverman and Immigration Minister Robert Jenrick are expected on the ground in Dover this morning as the migrant crisis at the Manston airfield processing center continues to rage. Jenrick last night revealed on Sky News that the Home Office is facing a judicial review over the chaotic situation that has seen people stuck at Manston for weeks, after the department bungled the management of a huge influx of small-boat arrivals.

 

Numbers game: Playbook hears there are hopes in government that the number of migrants at Manston will have halved by the end of this week — although Jenrick admitted to the ITV Peston show last night that the number still stood at 3,500 last night — which is still 2,000 more than capacity at the processing site

 

The dream: Jenrick told Sky he was working to ensure Manston is “not just legally compliant but is a humane and compassionate place where we welcome those migrants, treat them appropriately and then they leave quickly to alternative accommodation.”

 

Not *that* humane: Migrants from Manston were dropped in the center of London and left there without assistance for several hours before police were called by a concerned member of the public, the i newspaper revealed last night. Meanwhile, the handwritten letter from migrants at Manston that was thrown over the fence to journalists also paints a grim picture.

 

GOING FULL HUMANE: Former Justice Secretary Robert Buckland suggested the U.K. should do even more than Jenrick proposed to welcome migrants, in an interview with the Spectator out this morning. Buckland said the government could allow asylum seekers to apply for voluntary work after six months on the waiting list instead of the current 12. “We’ve got thousands of people costing us money, standing idle — instead of being able to contribute,” he told Speccie Editor Fraser Nelson.

 

No one likes to see a resource go to waste: Buckland argued not doing so was “a waste of resource” when refugees could be working and contributing taxes, and would put more pressure on the health service via mental health cases for those with little to do. He also said asylum seekers should be banned from launching fresh appeals to remain using arguments that were not mentioned at the start of their cases.

 

STILL PUSHING FOR THIS ONE: In the Express, pol ed David Maddox reports that the Home Office is in talks with a number of new nations in the hope of reviving a deportation regime — after the Rwanda plan was scuppered due to court challenges. An agreement with Paraguay is the closest to being inked, sources told Maddox, noting that the human rights picture there is better than in Rwanda, so a court challenge could be less winnable.

 

Bad luck … Crown Prince of Belize Lord Ashcroft last night announced that the Central American nation is not interested, despite it being named as an option in the Express report.

 

TOUGH CROWD: It’s hard to imagine that new wheezes about deporting migrants to far-flung lands will do much to convince the public the government is on top of the issue. A poll for GB News released last night found 58 percent believe the government has lost control of Britain’s borders, with the number soaring to 75 percent among Conservatives. Nigel Farage is watching.

 

This won’t help in the court of public opinion: The Sun reports that 25 percent of the hotels the Home Office is booking to house migrants have four and five star ratings. The overall bill is £6.8 million each day, according to the paper.

 

Also not helping Suella: Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama told Newsnight last night that Braverman was “fueling xenophobia” with her language about a migrant “invasion” … Rama also put out a series of tweets in which he said the U.K. must stop blaming Albania for its own “policy failures” and issued a rebuke of what he suggested was Braverman’s “insane” reasoning … Lord Alf Dubs (of unaccompanied child migrant fame) told PolHome’s Eleanor Langford that Braverman was inciting violence with her rhetoric … a whopping 14 Kent Councils have slammed the Home Office in a joint letter over its handling of the Manston crisis … and hacks at National World have debunked the Braverman suggestion that Albanians have little chance of being victims of modern slavery.

 

NOW READ THIS: Subscribers of the Economist should read this damning Bagehot column on the small boats crisis that takes both the government and the opposition apart with quiet precision.

 

And now watch this: Think tankers at Policy Exchange will discuss whether the immigration regime is working post-Brexit at 6 p.m. It has quite a few panelists including Shadow Immigration Minister Stephen Kinnock and former Downing Street aide Nick Timothy. Info here.

 

 

IT’S A JUNGLE OUT THERE

HANCOCK AND BULL TESTICLES: There’s fresh ribbing of soon-to-be-bush-tucker-eating ex-Minister Matt Hancock this morning for going on I’m a Celeb, with the Daily Star (in the wake of its lettuce success) launching a campaign on its front page to get the part-time MP selected to do every one of the vile trials in the game show. A tantalizing prospect indeed.

 

But but but: Hancock could be saved from some of the toughest tasks thanks to his apparent rotting foot, according to the Sun. The paper claims Hancock got trench foot while filming another gameshow in recent weeks (Celebrity SAS Who Dares Wins) and it might not have cleared up, meaning water-based tasks or swimming trials could be out of the question.

 

However however however: One person close to Hancock insisted: “It’s the first I’ve heard of it. Matt loves a challenge and he won’t let anything put him off. He’ll throw himself into all the trials and tasks while on the show and he’ll definitely give it his best shot.”

 

Meanwhile: The campaign to rehabilitate Hancock has ratcheted up another notch since the news of his trip Down Under didn’t land well in Westminster. A spokesman for the contestant has said he will donate a sum larger than his MP wage to St Nicholas Hospice in Suffolk and causes supporting dyslexia off the back of his appearance.

 

Something to look forward to: Hancock is also committed to declaring the amount he receives from the show to parliament. [Hacks rub hands with gleeful anticipation.]

 

WTF HAPPENED? Given all the above, top colleagues Seb Whale and Graham Lanktree traveled to Liverpool and reported out this long read on how, half a century after U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger declared “Britain is a tragedy,” it’s heading to be the sick man of Europe once again. “The U.K. is spluttering its way through an illness brought about in part through a series of self-inflicted wounds that have undermined the basic pillars of any economy: confidence and stability,” Seb and Graham write. “The existential risk to the U.K. … is not that we’re suddenly going to go off an economic cliff, or that the country’s going to descend into civil war or whatever,” Jonathan Portes, professor of economics at King’s College London, tells them. “It’s that we will become like Italy.” Mamma mia!