London Playbook: Bill everyone — Postcard from
Norwich — Orwell that ends well
BY EMILIO
CASALICCHIO
AUGUST 26,
2022 8:04 AM
POLITICO
London Playbook
By EMILIO
CASALICCHIO
Good Friday
morning. This is Emilio Casalicchio. Annabelle Dickson will be back to kick off
next week.
DRIVING THE
DAY
BILL
EVERYONE: Britain is in meltdown after the new price cap for fuel bills was
announced by regulator Ofgem in the past few moments. It means bills will soar
to a whopping £3,549 a year on average from the start of October, compounding
the torment of rocketing costs of living. The fallout will resonate throughout
the day, with Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi, the leadership candidates, experts,
other MPs and members of the public starting to weigh in.
Don’t
forget: The new cap is the maximum providers can charge per unit of fuel
between October and December — after which it’s expected to rise again
(announcement on that in October). Seeing as the change this morning will drive
bills significantly higher from the previous cap of £1,971, the next rise could
be even more bonkers.
Straight
out the blocks: In a statement just released, Zahawi said he knows the higher
cap will “cause stress and anxiety for many people, but help is coming,”
pointing to the measures the government has confirmed. “While Putin is driving
up energy prices in revenge for our support of Ukraine’s brave struggle for
freedom, I am working flat out to develop options for further support,” he
added, insisting the new PM will have the tools to “hit the ground running” and
deliver support where needed.
Where are
the ministers? There is no government minister or leadership campaign
representative on the broadcast round this morning, which is, err, reassuring.
Readers can expect a TV clip from Zahawi to appear around 9.30 a.m. and a clip
from the PM late morning or noon.
The absence
won’t improve … results from a new Focaldata poll just out that suggests almost
half of Brits (47 percent) blame the government more than fuel firms for the
rocketing bills.
SUPPORT
CHEAT SHEET: Don’t forget, the government announced £400 for each household to
help with fuel bills, which will start arriving in October. It will mean a
discount to bills each month until March 2023. There’s also £324 for low-income
households coming in the fall. Meanwhile, people on disability benefits will
get an extra £150 from September 20, and most pensioners will get £300 in
November or December on top of their winter fuel payments.
But but
but: The consensus is that none of this is enough, and that neither are the
current pledges of the two Conservative leadership candidates (see this
astounding chart). But the government can’t act until it has a new PM in place,
which won’t happen for a week and a half.
When that
happens … Favorite to win Liz Truss has a piece in the Mail this morning
promising “decisive action on entering No.10 to provide immediate support” to
struggling households. “To those of you feeling the squeeze, my message is
clear: I will ensure support is on its way and we get through these tough
times,” she promised. We’ve come a long way from “no handouts.”
Yes
handouts: In the Times, Steve Swinford reports that Truss and her assumed
future chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng, discussed options for what support measures
could look like in the tranquil surrounds of her Chevening government
residence. Swinford reveals Truss could nick rival Rishi Sunak’s pledge to
suspend VAT on fuel bills, or might use Universal Credit to target households
who need the most support, such as those with big families or disabilities. The
write-up splashes the paper.
Shame …
that there’s no one to ask about the report on broadcast this morning. Instead,
Ofgem CEO Jonathan Brearley is doing interviews to explain the price cap rise.
His full rundown is: Radio 4 Today program (7.10 a.m.) … BBC Breakfast (7.35
a.m.) … Sky News (8.02 a.m.) … GMB (8.20 a.m.). He’s also doing a pool clip for
others and a pre-record for LBC Radio.
WORTH
LOOKING OUT FOR: Consumer legend Martin Lewis will also be on broadcast
unpacking the announcement. He was on Twitter last night pointing out that although
Ofgem regulates consumer firms and can cap bills and domestic provider profits,
it’s the government that has to step in on oil and gas wholesalers who are
making the real cashola. Will the new government want to do so? Don’t bet on
it. Lewis will be on GMB at 8.10 a.m.
AND FOR THE
OPPOSITION: Rachel Reeves is out and about too. She just put out a statement
saying the announcement will “strike fear in the heart of many families, and
force many to make unthinkable choices this winter,” arguing the government
should adopt the Labour proposal of another windfall tax on oil and gas profits
to fund more support. She’s on BBC Breakfast (7 a.m.) … GMB (7.20 a.m.) … BBC
Radio 5 Live (7.35 a.m.) … Sky News (7.50 a.m.) … LBC (8.20 a.m.) … BBC Radio 4
Today program (8.40 a.m.) … Times Radio (9.05 a.m.).
Filling the
vacuum: The benefit for Labour is it can push for a change of approach while
the government remains in stasis. Leader Keir Starmer last night said a surge
in bills will be “devastating for people and businesses across the country” and
touted his “fully funded plan to freeze bills and save households £1,000 this
winter.”
Err … hold
on a minute: Full Fact has a new blog out this morning claiming there’s a hole
of between £5 billion and £8 billion in the Labour plan. The party poopers
reckon the scheme fails to account for households using more fuel over winter
and is therefore even less “fully funded” than the fact checkers previously
thought. “Politicians must own up to their mistakes if they’re serious about
earning voters’ trust,” said Full Fact boss Will Moy.
What
mistakes? Labour is fighting back — albeit off the record. “Full Fact don’t
understand how energy bills work,” a source said. “We’ve consulted Ofgem on how
direct debit customers are billed and costed it accordingly.”
Miaow:
“This isn’t the first time we’ve had to fact check Full Fact’s sums back at
them,” the source added. “In April they were forced to delete a number of their
social media posts and issue a correction after getting their maths wrong on
Labour’s cost of living sums.” No one predicted this fight.
**As summer
ends, Europe’s agri-food sectors brace for a cold winter. Will Europe be able
to ensure global food security while leveraging technological innovation to
design a greener future for European farmers and consumers? Join us in Paris or
online to engage with senior policymakers on this and much more. Find out who
is coming to France and register here today.**
TORY
PSYCHODRAMA LATEST
IT’S ALMOST
OVER: The Conservative leadership hustings in Norwich last night was more
interesting than the Birmingham round — although the bar was, of course, low.
It seems even CCHQ has given up at this point, with its £5 souvenir program now
being handed out for free. The sad news is that PoliticsJOE didn’t get one, as
its reporters were barred from the event for not being nice enough about the
Tories. Its coverage might be a bit over-egged at times, but PoliticsJOE has a
Westminster pass so it’s shameful for the Tories to pick and choose when it
comes to the free press.
Postcard
from Norwich: POLITICO’s Annabelle Dickson was at the hustings, and noted that
even though Norfolk is home turf for Truss, there were still plenty of Sunak
supporters in the 550-strong audience, and a surprising number of members who
said they hadn’t yet decided or voted. Multiple Sunak supporters claim they are
still finding plenty of undecided members in their associations and reckon it’s
not a done deal yet. For what it’s worth, key Truss lieutenants are still
preparing for power and claim to be optimistic.
Merch wars:
The hustings merchandise wars are ruthless. Getting branded goods into the
hands of audience members is the main action in the hour before the hustings
kicks off. Annabelle notes that the latest battle is over bottled water. It hasn’t
gone unnoticed on the hustings circuit that after Team Sunak started offering
branded water in the battle for activist hearts and minds amid the heat wave,
Team Truss followed suit. Don’t tell Michael Gove.
Spotted:
Sunak-backing MPs Stephen Barclay (who introduced Sunak) and James Wild (both
constituency neighbors of Truss) and top Truss backer Thérèse Coffey being
asked for a selfie with an adoring activist.
Talking of
Coffey: Senior campaign sources tell Annabelle that Coffey is not being lined up
for the chief whip job if Truss wins, although remain tight-lipped about which
role she’ll get.
WAR WITH
FRANCE: The best news line from the hustings was when Truss said “the jury is
out” on whether French President Emmanuel Macron is a friend or foe — amid
continued tensions over Brexit. “If I become prime minister I’ll judge him on
deeds not words,” she added during a quick-fire round. POLITICO’s Jack
Blanchard has a write-up, and no doubt Macron is reading about it in Playbook
Paris right now. Sunak, for the record, said Macron was a friend.
Salt in the
wound: Labour has pounced on the diplomatic faux pas. “At a time when the West
must stay united in the face of Russian attempts to divide us, the fact the
foreign secretary has chosen to needlessly insult one of our closest allies
shows a terrible and worrying lack of judgment,” Shadow Foreign Secretary David
Lammy said last night.
Trigger
warning: To make matters worse, the FT reports Truss could trigger the dreaded
Article 16 of the Northern Ireland protocol (allowing the government to swerve
bits of it) within days of entering Downing Street. “We can’t go on like this
and something needs to break the deadlock,” one of her allies told the paper.
But former Downing Street Europe adviser Raoul Ruparel last night argued such a
move would not be, in fact, that big a deal. Remember that the current checks
easements on trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland expire on
September 15.
ALSO IN THE
QUICK-FIRE: Truss said Boris Johnson would make a better prime minister than
her leadership rival Rishi Sunak — while Sunak said Truss would make a better
prime minister than Boris Johnson. Awks.
Elsewhere:
Truss ruled out ever imposing a lockdown on Britain. “I can assure you and this
group here today that I would never impose a lockdown if I’m selected as prime
minister,” she declared. That seems like a safe-ish bet, seeing as a global
pandemic is normally a once-a-century kind of thing — but it feels a bit
hostage to fortune.
She said,
he said: Truss insisted she did argue against lockdowns in Cabinet — although
Team Sunak remains dubious. She is mentioned in this Sun piece from the time as
having argued against a Christmas lockdown without further evidence of the
need.
Lockdown
sentiment: Polling firm Kekst CNC has been tracking whether the public wants
ministers to prioritize containing the coronavirus (even if it means bad
economic effects) or protecting the economy (even if it means more COVID
deaths). Its recent results, seen by Playbook, show the preference for economic
protection overtook virus containment just before April 2022 and now stands at
41 percent to 38 percent. It could mark increased concern about the cost of
living as much as the pandemic feeling like an almost-forgotten bad dream.
Final
hustings point … asked why she was swerving an interview with TV attack dog
Andrew Neil, Truss said hustings host Julia Hartley-Brewer is a “much tougher”
cookie. Which sounds about right if last night’s Popbitch newsletter is to be
believed.
CORONATION
WITH A DIFFERENCE: The Conservative leadership winner might have to trek up to
Balmoral to see the queen and be asked to form a government, because her maj is
having mobility issues. Matt Wilkinson reveals the secret (well, less so now)
plan in the Sun. It splashes the paper.
BEYOND THE
LEADERSHIP RACE
PARLIAMENT:
Still in recess until September 15. Make the most of the long weekend because
next week the proverbial will edge much closer to the fan.
POP-OPS:
Boris Johnson is visiting a new surgical NHS hub, as the government announces
more than 50 of the centers to help wade through the COVID backlogs. The PM
will record a broadcast clip during the late morning, where he’ll no doubt be
asked about the fuel price cap and might be asked about lockdown. Health
Secretary Steve Barclay has outlined the surgical hub announcement in a piece
for the Times.
Speaking of
Barclay: The amazing video of a woman berating him over ambulance waiting times
makes the front page of the Metro. “12 years — you’ve done bugger all about
it!” Instant classic.
And
speaking of BoJo: The PM is expected to deliver a crowd-pleaser at the upcoming
Conservative conference in October, a friend of his tells Jack Blackburn for
the Times Diary. “There’s no way he’s not going to turn up, do the big speech,
have them queuing round the block,” the pal said. “Especially if things are
already looking dicey for Truss.”
BIG READ
ABOUT THE EUROPE-WIDE LOOMING CRISIS: The looming shutdown of Britain’s largest
fertilizer plant has triggered alarm throughout British businesses as the
energy price spike starts to bite, threatening disruption for farmers, food
manufacturers and — to the horror of bar owners everywhere — brewers of beer.
It’s not just Britain, though. Europe is feeling (and feeding into) the supply
chain pain too. POLITICO’s Graham Lanktree, Sebastian Whale, Bartosz Brzezinski
and Gabriela Galindo have the lowdown. Essential reading for all those who want
to eat (and down pints) in the future.
Despite the
global panic: The i newspaper’s Arj Singh reports that Johnson used a phone
call at the weekend to urge the U.S., France and Germany not to let Western
unity crack over Ukraine despite the knock-on gas and fertilizer crisis. BoJo
for foreign sec?
On that
note: The ONS will at 9.30 a.m. release the results of its latest survey of
those who have come to the U.K. under Ukraine humanitarian schemes. The landing
page is here.
PARISH
NEWS: Disgraced former Conservative MP Neil Parish is doing what all
ex-semi-important people do and starting a podcast. It will be about farming
and agriculture, he tells the i newspaper’s David Parsley. Parish is also
mulling whether to fight for his old Tiverton and Honiton seat as an
independent at the next election — a move that could split the Conservative
vote and secure the Lib Dems another win.
ORWELL THAT
ENDS WELL: The Cabinet Office announced it will overhaul its controversial
“clearing house” that saw FOIs to government departments vetted. Instead it
will replace the team with a “center of excellence” (Playbook couldn’t make
this stuff up) to deal with FOIs, and treat all requests the same no matter who
makes them. Kudos to OpenDemocracy, which revealed the clearing house and has
been pursuing it ever since.
NORMAL
COUNTRY: A Conservative peer named Charles Henry John Benedict Crofton Chetwynd
Chetwynd-Talbot is under investigation (again) over evidence he boasted he
could use his “extremely high-level contacts” in government, one of whom was “at
the very top of the feed chain,” to lobby for the health company SpectrumX — a
firm that happened to be paying him. The Guardian has a write-up.
POLITICAL
LEAKS: During rain yesterday morning there were 12 buckets dotted around
Portcullis House catching water leaks from the roof. This is the newest bit of
parliament, don’t forget. It’s also been noticed that a total of four fig trees
have been removed from the atrium because there was a risk of them falling on
people.
STATE OF
THE UNION: Scottish FM Nicola Sturgeon is in Denmark today opening the Scottish
government’s Nordic Office in Copenhagen and meeting Danish Foreign Minister
Jeppe Kofod. Meanwhile, Scotland’s capital continues to look like this. Talks
between the unions now striking across Scotland and councils will continue
today.
UKRAINE
UPDATE: The world only avoided a nuclear disaster yesterday thanks to back-up
electricity, which kicked in and kept Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
running when it was disconnected from the grid for the first time ever. The
plant was cut off due to fires that damaged overhead power lines — which
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said were due to Russian shelling near
the complex. For now at least (gulp) radiation levels remain normal. The White
House has called on Russia to allow a demilitarized zone to be set up around
the plant to avert the looming disaster. More here from the Guardian’s Emma
Graham-Harrison and Isobel Koshiw.
Elsewhere
in Ukraine: A Russian missile strike on a railway station in the eastern town
of Chaplyne killed 25 people, according to Zelenskyy. Also, Russian President
Vladimir Putin has ordered a 10 percent boost to Russian troop numbers as the
war recruitment drive continues. The BBC says it isn’t clear yet if Putin is
looking for conscripts or volunteers.
WORRYING
ARREST: Myanmar’s military authorities have arrested Vicky Bowman, the U.K.’s
former ambassador to Myanmar, and her husband, artist and former political
prisoner Htein Lin, the BBC reports.
**Andrea
Ammon, director of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, w
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário