Unfinished business: policies that could fail
under UK’s ‘lame-duck’ government
Much needed decisions on energy to retail taxes look
likely to stall amid political chaos
Jasper
Jolly, Alex Lawson, Rob Davies, Gwyn Topham and Richard Adams
Fri 8 Jul
2022 16.10 BST
Boris
Johnson is still prime minister, for now, and has appointed a cabinet, so
technically the business of government should be able to continue. With the
nation gripped by a cost of living crisis, and action needed on everything from
education to energy, the ministerial in-trays are overflowing. But the chances
of a “lame-duck” administration getting much done look decidedly thin. Here are
some of the major policies that could stall amid the chaos.
Energy
It promised
to be a momentous – and feisty – week in the energy industry as long-running
battles came to a head. A decision on approval for the £165m plans for Britain’s
first new coalmine for decades, near Whitehaven in west Cumbria, had been
expected but was delayed. A review into fracking, originally expected last
week, is yet to emerge. A decision on planning approval for the Sizewell C
nuclear reactor in Suffolk, opposed by environmental campaigners, was due on
Friday. It has now been pushed back to 20 July.
Gambling clampdown
A
once-in-a-generation reform of the UK’s out-of-date gambling laws was due to be
unveiled next week, but that has been thrown into doubt by the resignation of
gambling minister Chris Philp. The white paper is expected to include tougher
stake limits on online casino games and affordability checks to ensure punters
don’t lose too much, unless the proposals are watered down. Other policies
hanging in the balance include the creation of a gambling ombudsman, a
mandatory levy on operators to fund addiction services and a possible ban on
betting logos on football shirts.
Northern Ireland protocol
Johnson,
like his predecessor, may leave office with the issue of trade with Northern
Ireland unresolved. His government is pushing through legislation to rip up
arrangements he signed into law that impose checks on goods going from Great
Britain to NI.
On
Thursday, EU leaders quickly called for Johnson’s successor to abandon the
plans to deliberately break international law, which could cause a broader
trade war between the UK and its biggest trading partner. Warmer relations
could also open the door for the UK rejoining the EU’s €90bn (£76bn) Horizon
science research scheme.
HS2 in the north
The high-speed
rail network has always been opposed by a majority of Conservative voters and
particularly among the Brexit wing. Johnson likes big infrastructure projects
and backed it. Nonetheless, in his leadership campaign, he whipped up votes by
promising to review it – even if, once elected, he handed that review to a
former chairman of HS2.
Too much
work has surely been done on the first leg from London to Birmingham to go back
now without colossal waste, and phase 2a to Crewe has passed through
parliament. But a new leader could still choose to scrap the rest.
Education
Teachers’
pay is the top item for the new education secretary, James Cleverly – he needs
to publish the recommendations of the School Teachers’ Review Body before the
end of term or risk further angering teachers in England before strike ballots
in autumn.
Exam
results for A-levels and GCSEs arrive in mid-August – and will see steep falls
in top grades compared with last year. Whoever is education secretary will have
to clearly communicate to unhappy students and parents why that has happened.
The associated university admissions round could be a similar nightmare for
ministers.
The schools
bill going through parliament is in trouble and needs major retooling to
overcome opponents in the Lords who see it as a centralising power-grab over
academies by government.
The higher
education freedom of speech bill is also facing opposition in the Lords, and
has now lost its major sponsor in Michelle Donelan as minister. It may be
further delayed as its flaws are exposed.
Other
policies left dangling include the consultation on the review of special
education needs and disabilities that closes soon and needs urgent focus if
reforms are to make progress, while new policies on post-Covid catch-up and
school attendance also demand attention from ministers.
Retail taxes
The rapid
change to the retail industry brought by the internet has not been matched by
updates to how it is taxed. The government has consulted on reforming the
system of business rates for shops and on an online sales tax for web
retailers. A decision on the latter was expected by the autumn, but is already
facing stiff opposition from Conservative-friendly thinktanks.
Online harms
Parliament
is meant to be scrutinising the government’s online safety bill next week. A
major change in the regulation of the internet, it would potentially require
social media platforms, video streaming services and search engines to reduce
the influence of foreign state-backed disinformation. Two champions of the
bill, Nadine Dorries and Priti Patel, are still in office, and the government
has said it will complete the next stage before parliament goes into recess on
21 July.
Human rights
Dominic
Raab has had the Human Rights Act, brought in by Labour, in his sights for a
long time. He wants a replacement “bill of rights” to allow the UK’s supreme
court to ignore rulings by the European court of human rights (the arbiter of
the non-EU European convention on human rights).
Tacked on
to the bill is a proposal to prevent the wealthy from using the threat of
expensive court action to silence journalists or campaigners, by bringing
so-called strategic lawsuits against public participation, or Slapps. A
consultation has closed, but detailed proposals have not been published.
Immigration
The
government’s decision to ship refugees from the UK to Rwanda drew opposition
ranging from Tory backbenchers to the Archbishop of Canterbury. It has also
failed so far to get through the courts, after a first planned flight was
prevented from leaving. The scheme’s architects, Johnson and home secretary
Priti Patel, are both still in office, and the government’s lawyers are due to
argue their case for the flights to go ahead on 19 July. Even if it passes that
hurdle, a future administration could easily ditch the policy.
Sem comentários:
Enviar um comentário