Johnson reportedly refusing to resign, suggesting his departure might be followed by early election and Tory defeat Boris Johnson is determined not to resign, ITV’s Anushka Asthana reports.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jul/06/boris-johnson-rishi-sunak-sajid-javid-resignations-uk-politics-live-latest

 

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Johnson reportedly refusing to resign, suggesting his departure might be followed by early election and Tory defeat

Boris Johnson is determined not to resign, ITV’s Anushka Asthana reports.

 

3m ago

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How credible are Johnson's arguments to Tory MPs as to why he should stay

 

Boris Johnson has been making various arguments to colleagues as to why he should be allowed to stay in office. Some are more spurious than others. Here is a quick summary.

 

1) Electing a new leader would trigger an early election. This is a very weak argument. A new Tory leader would still have a working majority of around 70. Labour might demand an early election, but the new leader would not have to grant one. Changing leader does sometimes lead to an election happening earlier than otherwise - but that is normally because the governing party thinks it will benefit from a ‘new leader bounce’.

 

2) An early election would lead to an “almost certain’ Tory defeat. An election now certainly would lead to a Tory defeat. But it probably would not happen anyway (see above), and having a new leader would probably improve the party’s chances at the next election. (See 7.08pm.)

 

3) An early election would lead to a Labour/SNP coalition being in power. This is a rerun of the “coalition of chaos” argument that David Cameron used in 2015 very successfully (but dishonestly - it is hard to imagine any Labour/SNP pact in 2015 creating quite as much chaos as what came next.) Labour has firmly ruled a coalition with the SNP. But a Labour government might still need SNP votes to pass legislation, and so this argument has a bit of subtance to it.

 

4) A minority Labour government would introduce PR, locking the Tories out of power for decades. Some Labour MPs would love to introduce PR, but the party leadership is still committed to first past the post and did little to support the campaign for the alternative vote in 2011. First past the post works very well for the SNP in Scotland. For many on the left, electoral reform should be a priority for a progressive government, and so Johnson is raising an issue that does concern Tories. But Labour governments have never yet introduced PR. And even if they did, it would not necessarily stop rightwing coalitions being elected.

 

5) A minority Labour government would allow a second independence referendum, which could lead to the break-up of the UK. Keir Starmer now says he is opposed to a second referendum. But he has sounded more positive about allowing one in the past, and so such a vote would at least be more likely with a minority Labour government in power. But this argument ignores the point that it is having Johnson as prime minister that has helped to hold up support for independence in Scotland in the first place.

 

If Boris Johnson holds on as PM until the weekend, and does wait until a second no confidence vote, he will have to start making some of these arguments in public.