Analysis
European
leaders use Nato summit to sell military alliance to US voters
Andrew Roth
and Julian Borger in Washington
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/10/nato-european-leaders-us-military-alliance
Issue of
burden-sharing threatens to become major stumbling block should second Trump
administration come into power
Wed 10 Jul
2024 06.00 CEST
European
leaders at the Nato summit in Washington are focused on explaining to ordinary
American taxpayers that the military alliance is worth the money, as the issue
of burden-sharing has become a political football for both parties in the US –
and threatens to become a serious stumbling block for the alliance should a
second Trump administration come to power.
“There is a
debate in the United States that the US are doing a lot to support Ukraine and
Europe is not doing enough. If you look at figures, it’s actually a different
picture. Europe is doing more than the United States: the financial support,
military support we all have provided so far has been enormous … We are taking
the security and defense seriously,” said Edgars Rinkēvičs, the president of
Latvia, during a speech on Tuesday alongside former CIA director Leon Panetta
and the Estonian defense minister, Hanno Pevkur. “It’s also very important to
explain to the American public.”
In
background briefings, European officials have said they have been concerned
with political turmoil in the US and Europe. The US was among countries that
pushed back against a multi-year financial pledge for military aid to Ukraine –
in part because of the bitter fight in Congress over the Ukraine supplemental
bill.
“We think
that this is essential to signal that Europeans are taking a greater burden of
their own security,” said another European official ahead of the summit. “And
it’s an important message to Ukraine, to Russia – but also for domestic
audience. Here in DC, we are aware of the sensitivity of that topic, and I
think you can expect a lot of strategic communication on that next week.”
European
officials are balancing concerns over the growing Russian threat in Ukraine and
the political sensitivities that could further divide the alliance.
“We also
understand that the ordinary people, in Latvia or the United States or
somewhere else, sometimes do care more about economy, social issues, internal
security, and we should take those concerns seriously and address them in the
same manner that we are addressing the high geopolitical issues,” said
Rinkēvičs.
Polling has
shown that views on Nato are subject to a partisan divide in the US, and that
the alliance has become steadily less popular among Republicans in the past
year. According to the Pew Research Centre, just 43% of Republicans have a
positive view of the alliance, down from 49% who said the same in 2023.
European
leaders have taken different tacks, with some talking points seemingly tailored
toward the Republican candidate as well. “Nato is a club, and when you have a
club rules, then you respect the rules, and you expect that everybody will also
respect the rules,” Pefkur, the Estonian defense minister said on Tuesday. “So
Trump is a golfer, so when you pay your fee, in the golf club, you can play.
Doesn’t matter how big is your wallet. So when you pay that fee, you can go to
the golf course and play.”
In a speech
at the Hudson Institute on Tuesday, the Republican House speaker, Mike Johnson,
said that he supported Nato but that he would press European leaders on
fulfilling a pledge to spend 2% of GDP on defense. He also tied national
security to US border security, once again reinforcing how Nato policies have
become subsumed to domestic US politics.
“Nato needs
to be doing more,” he said. “Not all Nato members have reached their current
commitment. It may even need to be closer at a level during the cold war. But
if we’re all going to enjoy a future of peace and prosperity, we all need to
have skin in the game.”
Critics have
said that the US is going through a period of isolationism. “On a tectonic
level, our allies should understand that there is a usually isolationist
instinct in this country,” said Representative Jim Himes, a senior Democrat on
the House intelligence committee. “And it emerges from time to time, when
economic conditions here are not good,” or after moments of disenchantment like
the Iraq war. “We are in that isolationist moment and it’s not just Donald
Trump.”
Others
describe it as restraint. Trump is not the only one calling for the US to
withdraw forces and resources from Europe, leaving Europeans to take on the
burden of defending themselves. Several liberal foreign policy analysts have
been calling for years for a switch to American restraint when it comes to US
military projection, especially in Europe.
“It is in
the interest of a transatlantic alliance to shift the burden toward Europe and
transition over, a decent period, maybe about a decade, toward European
leadership of European defense with the United States moving to a supporting
role,” Stephen Wertheim a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace, and a leading advocate for restraint.
Wertheim was
one of dozens of foreign policy experts who wrote an open letter published in
the Guardian urging Nato leaders not to invite Ukraine to become a member.
“It could
also be counterproductive insofar as Russia believes that Ukraine is advancing
down this bridge to Nato membership, Russia gains an incentive to prolong the
war so that that moment never arrives, so that Ukraine never crosses that
bridge on the other side.”
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