London Playbook: Inflation rises again — Hustings
in Belfast — Asylum row
BY ELENI
COUREA
AUGUST 17,
2022 8:07 AM
POLITICO
London Playbook
By ELENI
COUREA
Good
Wednesday morning. This is Eleni Courea, with you today and Thursday.
DRIVING THE
DAY
INFLATION
ESCALATION: U.K. inflation hit double digits in July, according to figures
published moments ago. The Consumer Price Index rose by a record 10.1 percent in
the 12 months to July, up from 9.4 percent in June.
Lunchtime
TV: The sobering ONS stats come a few hours before Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss
are due to square up for hustings with Tory members in Belfast at 1 p.m. After
today’s inflation figures and yesterday’s wage growth figures marking the
biggest fall in real pay on record, the pair will come under renewed pressure
to explain what they’re going to do to prevent millions of people from facing
destitution this winter.
Where we
are: Grappling with the economic downturn and cost of living crisis has become
the central issue of this contest and the defining challenge for the next PM.
While Truss has hinted at further support, she has steadfastly refused to
detail what that would be, and in response Sunak has stepped up his attacks.
His team has drawn up a three-page analysis of who’s been “left behind” under
the commitments Truss has made so far — their answer being pensioners and
hard-working families, which in a sense covers the entire U.K. population. Today’s
Times splashes on the document and Sunak’s claim in Perth that Truss’ approach
would lead to millions of people being “tipped into destitution” and represent
a “moral failure.”
The
spotlight today: Is going to be on whether Truss — who, as Playbook readers
will all know, is widely expected to win this contest — is going to hold the
line.
Crossing
the Irish Sea: The event in Belfast marks Day Two of the candidates’
whistle-stop tour of the U.K. nations, after last night’s Scottish Q&A
(more on how that went from Playbook reporter Andrew McDonald below). Sunak and
Truss both fly to Northern Ireland early this morning. Unlike previous
hustings, there will be no journalist hosting today’s Q&A — instead the
Tory Party chairman will take questions from the audience.
What Team
Truss will be keen to talk about: In a conveniently timed move last night,
Truss triggered formal proceedings against Brussels over the U.K. being frozen
out of EU science schemes. POLITICO’s Cristina Gallardo has a write-up of the
FCDO’s announcement, which had been expected for weeks (with Bloomberg
reporting it was imminent on Monday). What could have attracted Truss to
pushing the button on the eve of her Q&A with staunchly pro-Brexit Tory
members in Belfast?
Talking
Britain down? If you ask Team Sunak, this is proof Truss doesn’t believe in
Britain. A campaign source told my POLITICO colleague Emilio Casalicchio: “What
matters is what works to make Britain a science superpower, which is Rishi
Sunak’s vision for our country. It’s odd to see Truss indefinitely chasing
membership of an EU club when what we need is to accelerate a positive British
alternative.”
Or at least
British workers: The Guardian’s Pippa Crerar has been sent a leaked recording
of Truss saying that British workers needed “more graft” and lacked the “skill
and application” of foreign rivals like the Chinese. “Essentially it’s partly a
mindset and attitude thing, I think,” she said while she was chief secretary to
the Treasury sometime between 2017 and 2019. “It’s working culture, basically.
If you go to China it’s quite different, I can assure you.” The comments echo a
widely reported passage in the rightwing treatise “Britannia Unchained” —
co-authored by Truss and her likely chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng — which said British
workers were the “worst idlers in the world.”
Apropos of
nothing: There is speculation that Boris Johnson — who is currently middle of
his second holiday in a fortnight — is going to spend the remaining three weeks
of his tenure working from Chequers. The Times’ George Grylls writes it up.
On the
ground: Truss has an op-ed in the Belfast News Letter (not online yet) and is
planning to visit maritime engineering firm Artemis Technologies after the
hustings. Northern Irish Tory Chairman Matthew Robinson has hinted he is
leaning toward backing her over Sunak, the Belfast Telegraph reports.
Climate
hustings: The Conservative Environment Network is holding virtual hustings at 9
a.m., where Truss will be represented by Environment Minister Zac Goldsmith and
Sunak by Environment Secretary George Eustice. Watch online here.
Insulation
nation: The CEN has put forward a £9 billion package of proposals to help with
the cost of energy bills, including insulating homes and installing more heat
pumps. Peter Walker has a write-up in the Guardian.
Not exactly
helping: Further damage is looming for the struggling U.K. economy as a wave of
dockworker strikes kicks off this coming weekend, my POLITICO Trade U.K.
colleague Graham Lanktree reports. Workers at Peel Ports in Liverpool voted for
strike action this week as promised pay rises fail to match the spiraling cost
of living. It follows a decision by workers at the U.K.’s largest container
port, Felixstowe, to walk out for eight days from this coming weekend. Supply
chain experts tell Graham that trade routes will inevitably be hit, and that
the inflationary spiral will therefore only continue. Unions say pay offers
have been hopelessly inadequate, and that bosses need to do more to support
workers in difficult times.
CAMPAIGN
ROUNDUP
TIPPED FOR
CABINET (SECRETARY): The Times’ Steve Swinford reports James Bowler, the
permanent secretary at the Department for International Trade, is Truss’
preferred candidate for Cabinet secretary if she wins. Chris Wormald and Peter
Schofield are other potential contenders.
Lining up
behind Liz: Eleven government whips backed Truss on Tuesday after a requirement
for them to stay neutral was lifted — here’s the Times’ write-up. Meriden MP
Saqib Bhatti becomes the latest to endorse her campaign with an op-ed in the
Express.
Nationalization
conversation: John Redwood — Margaret Thatcher’s former policy chief who’s now
tipped for a role in the Truss government — has an op-ed in the Telegraph
railing against calls for the water industry to be nationalized and saying the
industry needs to become more competitive.
WHAT SUNK
SUNAK: Rishi Sunak was riding high in focus groups with the public up until his
wife Akshata Murthy’s non-dom tax status was revealed, according to More in
Common’s Luke Tryl. The former chancellor’s approval rating plunged following
the revelation in April by the Independent. The Times’ Geri Scott has the
story.
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HUSTINGS
ROUND 7
FIGHTING
FAIR: The candidates, Tory members and Scotland’s media corps were greeted by a
smattering of rowdy pro-independence protesters as they arrived at the Concert
Hall in the Fair City, Playbook reporter (and Perth native) Andrew McDonald
writes. One group brandished a “Tory scum” banner while some protesters egged
party members making their way into the venue.
Tensions
high: One group filmed themselves hurling furious abuse at BBC Scotland Editor
James Cook, who to his immense credit remained extremely polite and
professional throughout the whole ordeal. MPs David Linden and Stewart McDonald
are among the SNP politicians who have so far condemned the independence
supporters involved.
Inside the
hall: The playlist included hits from Elton John, Bon Jovi (“It’s My Life”) and
Kid Rock, before the candidates were introduced by Andrew Bowie for Sunak and
former Scottish Secretary David Mundell for Truss.
Reading the
room: Both Truss and Sunak were understandably eager to emphasize their
unionist credentials in front of the only hustings taking place for members of
the Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party. Sunak — who went first — said it
was “quite frankly barmy” for the SNP to pursue an independence referendum and
tried to draw a contrast with Truss by promising he wouldn’t ignore Nicola
Sturgeon but would instead “take her on and beat her.” But it was Truss who got
the biggest cheer of the night for her line that “to me we are not just
neighbors, we are family — and I will never ever let our family be split up.”
Cost of
living lines: Sunak ruled out introducing Keir Starmer’s proposed energy price
cap freeze, as both candidates responded for the first time to the Labour
leader’s cost of living plan. Truss was cagier, answering that while she
wouldn’t support any “sticking plaster” policies, she also isn’t prepared to
write her — hypothetical — chancellor’s budget for them.
Winning
Perthshire hearts: While Sunak’s opening statement and answers garnered
applause, the audience reserved its most enthusiastic feedback for Truss —
despite her refusing a request for her best Scottish accent.
Not winning
Perthshire hearts: STV pol ed and host Colin Mackay, whose firm questioning
managed to trip up both candidates on occasion and earned him a smattering of
boos from the audience. Some Tory members turning on journalists for asking
questions has been an unfortunate theme of the contest.
New
endorsement: Truss gained one new Scottish Tory MP supporter straight after the
hustings ended, with the backing of Johnson loyalist David Duguid, who had been
keeping his cards close to his chest. Keep an eye on the Scottish Tories’ Holyrood
grouping, with just under half yet to declare whom they are backing. Many are
thought to be basing their decision on last night’s hustings.
Liz’s
Scotland strategy: In her column for the i paper, Katy Balls reports that if
she becomes PM, Truss is planning to talk about Scottish “separatism” rather
than “independence.” “It’s part of an intended effort to frame it as a negative
act. Truss will be keen to push the idea that Scotland is a great country let
down by its SNP government,” Balls writes.
BEYOND THE
LEADERSHIP RACE
PARLIAMENT:
In recess.
ASYLUM ROW:
Former Immigration Minister Chris Philp has slammed the Modern Slavery Act —
the landmark legislation Theresa May championed as PM — and claimed it allows
illegal immigrants to escape deportation. The Telegraph splashes on an op-ed
from Philp calling for the law to be tightened. The paper quotes a Home Office
source saying that as part of a review of the act, Home Secretary Priti Patel
would increase the threshold of proof required from trafficking victims and put
a limit on the number of claims that can be made.
Stats and
warnings: The Sun’s Stephen Moyes reports government projections suggest the
U.K. will house 100,000 asylum seekers by the end of next year. Former Brexit
Party leader Nigel Farage pops up in today’s Telegraph to warn that Channel
crossings are going to damage the Tories at the next election, with neither
Truss nor Sunak offering a solution. The Mail reports on a pledge from Truss
yesterday that if she became PM, the Navy would continue to patrol the Channel
for boats.
Judicial
review: An official reviewing the Rwanda deportations policy warned ministers
in advance that the Kagame government routinely puts its citizens under
surveillance and tortures and kills political opponents. The official’s memo
was released during a High Court hearing yesterday. Here’s Matt Dathan’s
write-up in the Times. The Times, Guardian and BBC are all challenging an
attempt by the U.K. government to keep the advice it received on the policy
secret.
CONTAMINATION
COMPENSATION: Victims of the infected blood scandal will receive interim
compensation of £100,000 each after decades of campaigning, the heath
department announced overnight. Here is the BBC write-up.
LABOURLAND:
The Guardian’s Jess Elgot reports that recently sacked Shadow Minister Sam
Tarry is teaming up with Momentum to force a vote at Labour conference on
strikes and backing “inflation-proof” pay rises. A campaign to garner support
for the motion will be launched this week, she hears.
Energy
policy: Polling by 38 Degrees suggests that the public overwhelmingly supports
nationalizing energy companies if they cannot ensure lower bills and backs
Labour’s policy of freezing the energy price cap. Jess Elgot has a write-up in
the Guardian. In less helpful news for Labour, Full Fact has cast doubt over
the costings of its energy policy as it includes £2 billion already factored
into government spending plans.
GOLDEN
GOODBYES: Officials who receive large payoffs after leaving the public sector
could be forced to pay them back if they rejoin under proposals being consulted
on by the Treasury, Civil Service World’s Beckie Smith reports today.
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