Next year will be critical for the rule of law
Europe’s troublemakers face tough electoral
challenges.
Photo-illustration
by Klawe Rzeczy for POLITICO
BY LILI
BAYER
December
27, 2021 4:02 am
2022 could
be the year the map of the European Union is redrawn.
For years,
right-wing populists gained ground across the bloc’s newer member countries,
inspired far-right groups across the Continent and stoked fears about the
union’s democratic future.
In Hungary,
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán consolidated his power over the media and
judiciary. In Poland, the conservative Law and Justice party introduced
wide-ranging changes to the country’s judiciary, raising deep alarm among
judges, courts and EU institutions. And in Slovenia, Prime Minister Janez Janša
put pressure on the country’s publicly funded news agency and undermined the
process of appointing prosecutors to the newly established European Public
Prosecutor’s office.
Now,
however, the future of Europe’s troublemaker governments is more uncertain than
it has been in years.
Hungary
will hold a parliamentary election this spring, and for the first time, Orbán’s
opposition has united in an effort to pose a real challenge to his power. While
the alliance grapples with internal divisions and an uneven playing field, the
prime minister’s opponents hope to capitalize on concerns over high-level
corruption and economic challenges to reach undecided voters.
An
opposition win would change not only rhetoric and policies in Budapest but also
the dynamics in the Council of the European Union, where Hungary has often
played the role of the rebel. It would also have geopolitical implications for
the region: Orbán has nurtured ties with Beijing and Moscow, and a new
government would likely make a U-turn and align more closely with the EU, the
United States and NATO. An Orbán victory, on the other hand, would cement the
veteran leader’s power and allow him to continue building an alliance of
far-right and Euroskeptic forces across the Continent.
In Poland,
2022 could bring intensified competition between Law and Justice and its
rivals, in particular former Prime Minister Donald Tusk. With tensions
deepening between Warsaw and Brussels, the rival camps will likely clash on
both rule of law at home and policy toward the EU. Law and Justice — which,
unlike its Hungarian counterpart, depends on occasionally unpredictable
coalition partners to govern — will face internal and external pressure ahead
of an election expected in 2023, if the ruling alliance doesn’t collapse
earlier.
And in
Slovenia, Janša will be tested in an election expected in the first half of
2022. His Slovenian Democratic Party already relies on coalition partners to
keep him in power. At the same time, the government’s handling of the pandemic
— combined with recurring scandals — has raised questions about the prime
minister’s political future.
For all the
EU hand-wringing about the degradation of democracy and the rule of law in
Central and Eastern Europe, this problem was never one that was going to be
solved in Brussels. The next few months will reveal whether a solution will be
found in the region.
Poland
With its
large economy and high geopolitical significance, Warsaw’s political battles
have implications far beyond Poland’s own borders.
Jarosław Kaczyński
The
72-year-old leader of Law and Justice is the most powerful person in Poland —
despite his lack of a fancy job title. Behind the scenes, the veteran
politician is expected to continue playing a major role in Warsaw’s
decision-making, including how to address concerns from Brussels about the
independence of the judiciary.
Donald
Tusk
The
ex-prime minister and former European Council president has returned to lead
opposition party Civic Platform. And while Poland’s opposition is divided, his
efforts do present a challenge for the ruling party. Tusk is campaigning to
convince Poles — who overwhelmingly support EU membership — that the government
is putting their dreams at risk.
Hungary
Hungary’s
2022 election will be watched closely across the bloc. The stakes are high for
both the ruling Fidesz party and its opponents, and the campaign is expected to
get ugly.
Viktor
Orbán
To his
fans, Viktor Orbán is a patriot bent on defending Hungary’s national interests.
To his critics, he is a wannabe autocrat. The upcoming election could be a
make-or-break moment for his career, but it also raises existential questions
for the prime minister and the businesspeople who rose on his coattails.
Péter
Márki-Zay
The
conservative mayor of the southern city of Hódmezővásárhely is Orbán’s unlikely
challenger in the 2022 election. But the mayor, who is running on an
anti-corruption platform, faces an uphill battle as the ruling party mobilizes
the might of its resources — from billboard campaigns to the state media —
against him and the opposition alliance.
Slovenia
While
Europe’s rule-of-law concerns often revolve around Hungary and Poland,
Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša’s rhetoric and Twitter habits have also
raised eyebrows in European capitals.
Janez Janša
The
longtime politician is a close Orbán ally who has gained a reputation for
firing off unsavory tweets. But Janša’s position at home is far from
entrenched. Critics say that while there are worries about the Slovenian
government’s moves, in particular its attacks on the media, the country’s
democratic institutions remain intact.
Tanja Fajon
A former
journalist and EU correspondent, Fajon leads Slovenia’s opposition Social
Democrats. She is currently a member of the European Parliament, where she has
worked on issues such as relations with the Western Balkans.
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